{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/2604-3063-arnold-allen-vs-melquizael-costa","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/2604-3063-arnold-allen-vs-melquizael-costa","generated_at":"2026-04-28T08:23:42.399Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":370,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":2604,"name":{"full":"Arnold Allen","first":"Arnold","last":"Allen"},"record":{"wins":20,"losses":4,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":2,"winsBySub":2,"winsByDec":7,"losses":3,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":68,"reach_inches":70,"weight_lbs":145,"stance":"Southpaw"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":3.47,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":3.04,"striking_accuracy":42},"grappling":{"takedown_average":0.86,"takedown_accuracy":47,"takedown_defense":71,"submission_average":0.3}},"profile":{"id":2604,"full_name":"Arnold Allen","nickname":"Almighty","page_nickname":"Almighty","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/040a74bb0a465c54","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/arnold-allen.png","physical":{"height_in":68,"height_cm":172,"weight_lb":145,"weight_kg":65,"reach_in":70,"reach_cm":177,"stance":"Southpaw","dob":"1994-01-22","age":32},"record":{"wins":20,"losses":4,"draws":0,"raw":"20-4-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":3.47,"str_acc":42,"sapm":3.04,"td_avg":0.86,"td_acc":47,"td_def":71,"sub_avg":0.3},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":339143,"event_name":"UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett","event_date":"2026-01-24T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Featherweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - 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After dropping back to back decisions to Jean Silva and Movsar Evloev, the Tristar product is staring down a three fight skid if he can't handle Melquizael Costa. Meanwhile, Costa's been on an absolute tear, finishing four straight fights including that nasty spinning back kick that put Dan Ige's lights out in February. The Brazilian's got serious momentum and a chance to crack the rankings with a big name on his resume.\n\nThis is a southpaw mirror match that could get wild. Allen's the more proven guy at this level, took Max Holloway five rounds back in 2023 and has that slick boxing game. But Costa's finishing instincts are scary right now. He flatlined Morgan Charriere in 74 seconds with a head kick, then turned around and starched Ige with that spinning back kick. Dude's hunting for highlight reels every time he steps in there.\n\nAllen's gotta use his experience and boxing fundamentals to keep Costa guessing. He went the distance with Giga Chikadze and showed he can win technical battles. But if he gets too comfortable, Costa's got the kind of explosive power that ends nights early. That guillotine he sunk on Andre Fili shows he's dangerous everywhere too.\n\nFor Allen, it's about stopping the bleeding and proving he's still elite. For Costa, it's about announcing himself as a real problem in the featherweight division. With Allen's team already in Vegas and fight week officially underway, the Brit knows there's no room for error.\n\nUPD (5th of April): Allen posted a 14 day countdown to his UFC 324 return on Instagram, confirming his team is already in Vegas getting ready for fight week. The urgency is real for the former top contender who can't afford another loss.\n\nUPD (5th of April): This southpaw versus southpaw matchup puts Allen's technical boxing against Costa's explosive finishing power, with the Brazilian riding a four fight finish streak that includes back to back head kick knockouts.","key_storylines":["Allen fighting to avoid three straight losses for first time","Costa riding four straight finishes with violent knockouts","Southpaw striker showdown with serious ranking implications"],"finishing_window":"Costa's finishes all came in round one, so if Allen survives the early storm, his experience could take over late."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Melquizael Costa","difference":"26.2%","values":{"fighter1":3.47,"fighter2":4.38}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Melquizael Costa","difference":"132.6%","values":{"fighter1":0.86,"fighter2":2}},"defense":{"advantage":"Arnold Allen","difference":"22.4%","values":{"fighter1":71,"fighter2":58}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/2604-arnold-allen","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3063-melquizael-costa","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}