{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/2727-3135-mitch-raposo-vs-allan-nascimento","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/2727-3135-mitch-raposo-vs-allan-nascimento","generated_at":"2026-04-10T14:34:10.345Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":287,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":2727,"name":{"full":"Mitch Raposo","first":"Mitch","last":"Raposo"},"record":{"wins":10,"losses":3,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":0,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":1,"losses":2,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":65,"reach_inches":64,"weight_lbs":125,"stance":"Switch"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":1.73,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":2.65,"striking_accuracy":36},"grappling":{"takedown_average":2.54,"takedown_accuracy":37,"takedown_defense":61,"submission_average":0}},"profile":{"id":2727,"full_name":"Mitch Raposo","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/0be6776db31d98ec","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/mitch-raposo.png","physical":{"height_in":65,"height_cm":165,"weight_lb":125,"weight_kg":56,"reach_in":64,"reach_cm":162,"stance":"Switch","dob":"1998-10-16","age":27},"record":{"wins":10,"losses":3,"draws":0,"raw":"10-3-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":1.73,"str_acc":36,"sapm":2.65,"td_avg":2.54,"td_acc":37,"td_def":61,"sub_avg":0},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":271487,"event_name":"UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane","event_date":"2025-10-25T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - 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Raposo's riding a nice win over Azat Maksum back in October, but before that? Two straight split decision losses that could've gone either way. He's sitting at that crossroads where one more L might mean a pink slip.\n\nNascimento is a different animal entirely. The Brazilian just choked out Cody Durden with a nasty anaconda back in November, and before that he outworked Jafel Filho for three rounds. This dude's got four UFC wins and only one loss, that split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov back in 2021. His nickname is \"Puro Osso\" which means Pure Bone, and when you watch him fight, you get it. He's all elbows and knees and sneaky submissions.\n\nHere's the thing about this matchup. Raposo's a switch stance guy from Regiment Training Center, so he's got some tools. But Nascimento is a Chute Boxe product who can crack you standing and strangle you on the mat. That first round rear naked choke of Carlos Hernandez? Took him three minutes. The flyweight division doesn't mess around, and Nascimento's proven he belongs in that top 15 conversation.\n\nFor Raposo, this is a massive step up in competition. He needs to show he can hang with a legit contender, not just survive against guys also fighting to stay employed. Nascimento's looking to make it three straight and start calling out ranked names. The scrap is officially set for UFC Fight Night in Winnipeg on April 18, 2026, giving both fighters plenty of time to prepare for what could be a career defining moment.\n\nRaposo's split decision loss to Sumudaerji at UFC 314 in April 2025 showed just how razor thin the margins are at flyweight. That fight saw him land only 43% of his strikes and struggle with his takedown game, going 6 for 19. Now with less than two weeks until Winnipeg, both guys are in the final stages of camp for this crucial flyweight clash.\n\nCanada Life Centre in Winnipeg is buzzing about hosting its first UFC event in over a decade, and this flyweight battle is shaping up as a potential show stealer on the Burns vs. Malott card. The matchup represents a clear crossroads fight where Raposo needs to show he belongs and Nascimento can cement himself as a legitimate contender.\n\nUPD (5th of April): With fight week approaching, Nascimento's been getting some buzz from LFA 227 coverage where analysts broke down his camp progress and grappling game heading into this matchup. The Brazilian looks sharp and ready to make it three straight.\n\nUPD (5th of April): Raposo's got less than two weeks to finalize his game plan against one of the division's most dangerous submission artists. This is do or die time for the Canadian based fighter looking to avoid another close decision loss.","key_storylines":["Raposo fighting for his job after two split losses","Nascimento hunting his third straight finish or decision win","Brazilian's slick submission game versus Raposo's switch stance puzzle"],"finishing_window":"If Nascimento gets this to the ground in rounds one or two, expect him to start hunting necks and looking for that finish."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Allan Nascimento","difference":"76.9%","values":{"fighter1":1.73,"fighter2":3.06}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Mitch Raposo","difference":"101.6%","values":{"fighter1":2.54,"fighter2":1.26}},"defense":{"advantage":"Mitch Raposo","difference":"64.9%","values":{"fighter1":61,"fighter2":37}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/2727-mitch-raposo","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3135-allan-nascimento","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}