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Dricus Du Plessis is moving up from his recent middleweight title loss to Khamzat Chimaev to face Kamaru Usman, who's making the jump to 185 pounds for the first time. Du Plessis opened as a massive favorite, which tells you how people see Usman's move up in weight. The South African pushed back hard on critics saying he should've fought Imavov instead, pointing out he's already beaten Sean Strickland twice and has no interest in another pure striker.\n\nUsman's coming off a huge win over Joaquin Buckley back in June, landing 137 strikes and controlling nearly 13 minutes in a five round decision. That was at welterweight though. Now he's stepping up to middleweight, and everyone's wondering how his body handles the extra weight. The Nigerian Nightmare hasn't looked quite the same since that head kick from Leon Edwards back at UFC 278, dropping three of his last four before the Buckley bounce back.\n\nDu Plessis is the bigger, more natural middleweight here. Before losing to Chimaev in August, he was on a tear, submitting Adesanya with a rear naked choke and grinding out decisions over Strickland. He's dangerous everywhere, mixing up his striking with solid wrestling. Usman's wrestling is elite, no question, but he's never had to deal with someone Du Plessis's size who can also grapple at a high level.\n\nThe real question is whether Usman's championship experience and pressure can overcome the size disadvantage. Du Plessis has been vocal about this fight being more interesting than another striker, and fans are split on whether Usman's move up is genius or desperation.","key_storylines":["Usman jumping to middleweight for the first time in his career","Du Plessis bouncing back from his title loss to Chimaev","Size vs experience in a true crossroads fight"],"finishing_window":"If Du Plessis is going to get the finish, it happens in rounds two or three when his size and power start wearing on Usman."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Dricus Plessis","difference":"18.8%","values":{"fighter1":5.18,"fighter2":4.36}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Kamaru Usman","difference":"27.0%","values":{"fighter1":2.22,"fighter2":2.82}},"defense":{"advantage":"Kamaru Usman","difference":"161.8%","values":{"fighter1":34,"fighter2":89}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/2754-dricus-plessis","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/6613-kamaru-usman","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}