{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3396-5925-steve-erceg-vs-tim-elliott","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3396-5925-steve-erceg-vs-tim-elliott","generated_at":"2026-05-02T06:56:30.235Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":384,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":3396,"name":{"full":"Steve Erceg","first":"Steve","last":"Erceg"},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":4,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":1,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":3,"losses":3,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":68,"reach_inches":68,"weight_lbs":125,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":3.79,"striking_accuracy":45},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.15,"takedown_accuracy":27,"takedown_defense":62,"submission_average":0.4}},"profile":{"id":3396,"full_name":"Steve Erceg","nickname":"Astroboy","page_nickname":"Astroboy","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/32ab52e5de93092d","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/steve-erceg.png","physical":{"height_in":68,"height_cm":172,"weight_lb":125,"weight_kg":56,"reach_in":68,"reach_cm":172,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1995-07-27","age":30},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":4,"draws":0,"raw":"13-4-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4,"str_acc":45,"sapm":3.79,"td_avg":1.15,"td_acc":27,"td_def":62,"sub_avg":0.4},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":179594,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez","event_date":"2025-08-09T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Bantamweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Ben Cartlidge 28 - 29.Eric Colon 28 - 29.Junichiro Kamijo 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4366,"full_name":"Ode Osbourne","first_name":"Ode","last_name":"Osbourne","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/ode-osbourne.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/ode-osbourne.png"}],"strikes_landed":39,"strikes_attempted":82,"strike_pct":48,"tds_landed":3,"tds_attempted":10,"td_pct":30,"ctrl_time_sec":287},{"fight_id":32472,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg","event_date":"2025-03-29T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Mike Bell 46 - 49.Sal D'amato 46 - 49.Chris Lee 46 - 49.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4559,"full_name":"Brandon Moreno","first_name":"Brandon","last_name":"Moreno","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/brandon-moreno.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/brandon-moreno.png"}],"strikes_landed":119,"strikes_attempted":282,"strike_pct":42,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0},{"fight_id":32752,"event_name":"UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya","event_date":"2024-08-17T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Perth, Western Australia, Australia","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punch to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":244,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4766,"full_name":"Kai Kara-France","first_name":"Kai","last_name":"Kara-France","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/kai-kara-france.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/kai-kara-france.png"}],"strikes_landed":9,"strikes_attempted":29,"strike_pct":31,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0},{"fight_id":32908,"event_name":"UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg","event_date":"2024-05-04T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":true,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Fabio Alves 47 - 48.Sal D'amato 47 - 48.Dave Tirelli 46 - 49.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5251,"full_name":"Alexandre Pantoja","first_name":"Alexandre","last_name":"Pantoja","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/alexandre-pantoja.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/alexandre-pantoja.png"}],"strikes_landed":129,"strikes_attempted":233,"strike_pct":55,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":6,"td_pct":17,"ctrl_time_sec":32},{"fight_id":33016,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev","event_date":"2024-03-02T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punch to Head At Distance","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":26,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4261,"full_name":"Matt Schnell","first_name":"Matt","last_name":"Schnell","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/matt-schnell.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/matt-schnell.png"}]}]},"fighter2":{"id":5925,"name":{"full":"Tim Elliott","first":"Tim","last":"Elliott"},"record":{"wins":22,"losses":13,"draws":1,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":0,"winsBySub":3,"winsByDec":7,"losses":11,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":67,"reach_inches":66,"weight_lbs":125,"stance":"Southpaw"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":3.37,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":2.65,"striking_accuracy":44},"grappling":{"takedown_average":3.71,"takedown_accuracy":47,"takedown_defense":59,"submission_average":1.1}},"profile":{"id":5925,"full_name":"Tim Elliott","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/c96d9178c9ed9e62","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/tim-elliott.png","physical":{"height_in":67,"height_cm":170,"weight_lb":125,"weight_kg":56,"reach_in":66,"reach_cm":167,"stance":"Southpaw","dob":"1986-12-24","age":39},"record":{"wins":22,"losses":13,"draws":1,"raw":"22-13-1"},"career_stats":{"slpm":3.37,"str_acc":44,"sapm":2.65,"td_avg":3.71,"td_acc":47,"td_def":59,"sub_avg":1.1},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":187897,"event_name":"UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","event_date":"2025-08-16T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Chicago, Illinois, USA","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Submission","details":"Guillotine Choke From Mount","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":279,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6109,"full_name":"Kai Asakura","first_name":"Kai","last_name":"Asakura","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/kai-asakura.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/kai-asakura.png"}],"strikes_landed":42,"strikes_attempted":88,"strike_pct":48,"tds_landed":2,"tds_attempted":3,"td_pct":67,"ctrl_time_sec":114},{"fight_id":33112,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez","event_date":"2023-12-09T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Bantamweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Submission","details":"Arm Triangle From Side Control","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":242,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3572,"full_name":"Sumudaerji","first_name":"Sumudaerji","last_name":"Sumudaerji","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/sumudaerji.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/sumudaerji.png"}],"strikes_landed":26,"strikes_attempted":37,"strike_pct":70,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":3,"td_pct":33,"ctrl_time_sec":125},{"fight_id":129657,"event_name":"UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2","event_date":"2023-10-21T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Submission","details":"Arm Triangle From Mount","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":183,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4496,"full_name":"Muhammad Mokaev","first_name":"Muhammad","last_name":"Mokaev","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/muhammad-mokaev.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/muhammad-mokaev.png"}]},{"fight_id":33388,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi","event_date":"2023-06-03T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Ron McCarthy 27 - 30.Derek Cleary 27 - 30.Chris Lee 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6255,"full_name":"Victor Altamirano","first_name":"Victor","last_name":"Altamirano","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/victor-altamirano.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/victor-altamirano.png"}],"strikes_landed":153,"strikes_attempted":237,"strike_pct":65,"tds_landed":6,"tds_attempted":7,"td_pct":86,"ctrl_time_sec":673},{"fight_id":34041,"event_name":"UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal","event_date":"2022-03-05T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Junichiro Kamijo 28 - 29.Derek Cleary 28 - 29.Ron McCarthy 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6592,"full_name":"Tagir Ulanbekov","first_name":"Tagir","last_name":"Ulanbekov","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/tagir-ulanbekov.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/tagir-ulanbekov.png"}],"strikes_landed":117,"strikes_attempted":227,"strike_pct":52,"tds_landed":3,"tds_attempted":9,"td_pct":33,"ctrl_time_sec":52}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"Tim Elliott just pulled off something wild at UFC 319, catching Kai Asakura in a guillotine from mount in round two. That's his second straight submission finish after choking out Sumudaerji back in December 2023. Meanwhile, Steve Erceg is coming off a decision win over Ode Osbourne in August, bouncing back after that brutal first round knockout loss to Kai Kara-France at UFC 305 in Perth. Erceg's had a crazy year, going five rounds with Brandon Moreno and another five with Alexandre Pantoja for the title at UFC 301.\n\nHere's the thing about this matchup. Elliott is a southpaw grappling wizard who's been finishing guys left and right. That guillotine over Asakura showed he's still got nasty submission skills even at this stage of his career. Erceg is more of a volume striker who likes to piece guys up from range, but he's struggled when the power shows up. That Kara-France knockout happened just four minutes into the fight.\n\nThe technical battle is fascinating. Elliott landed 6 out of 7 takedowns against Victor Altamirano and controlled him for over 11 minutes. Erceg threw 282 strikes against Moreno but couldn't land a single takedown. If Elliott can drag this to the mat, his submission game is dangerous as hell. Erceg needs to keep it standing and use his reach, but Elliott's tricky and unpredictable.\n\nThis is a real crossroads scrap. Elliott's riding high with momentum, while Erceg is trying to prove that title shot run wasn't a fluke. Both fighters are locked in for this weekend's showdown in Perth, where Erceg gets the hometown advantage fighting on Australian soil.\n\nUPD (29th of April): Erceg is scheduled to compete in one of the final three bouts at UFC Fight Night Perth this weekend, fighting in front of his home crowd alongside other West Australian fighters on the card.\n\nUPD (29th of April): The Perth crowd is going to be electric for this one, with Erceg looking to use that home energy to bounce back while Elliott tries to play spoiler and extend his submission streak to three straight finishes on enemy territory.","key_storylines":["Elliott's hot streak with back to back submission finishes","Erceg recovering from that brutal Kara-France knockout","Grappling wizard versus volume striker matchup"],"finishing_window":"If Elliott gets a takedown in rounds two or three, that's when the submission threat becomes real."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Steve Erceg","difference":"18.7%","values":{"fighter1":4,"fighter2":3.37}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Tim Elliott","difference":"222.6%","values":{"fighter1":1.15,"fighter2":3.71}},"defense":{"advantage":"Steve Erceg","difference":"5.1%","values":{"fighter1":62,"fighter2":59}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3396-steve-erceg","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/5925-tim-elliott","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}