{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3511-6829-francisco-prado-vs-charles-radtke","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3511-6829-francisco-prado-vs-charles-radtke","generated_at":"2026-04-10T14:28:05.646Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":411,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":3511,"name":{"full":"Francisco Prado","first":"Francisco","last":"Prado"},"record":{"wins":12,"losses":4,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":1,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":0,"losses":4,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":70,"reach_inches":69,"weight_lbs":170,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.09,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":4.95,"striking_accuracy":43},"grappling":{"takedown_average":0.94,"takedown_accuracy":19,"takedown_defense":50,"submission_average":0.5}},"profile":{"id":3511,"full_name":"Francisco Prado","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/3920d0cc288f9b0d","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/francisco-prado.png","physical":{"height_in":70,"height_cm":177,"weight_lb":170,"weight_kg":77,"reach_in":69,"reach_cm":175,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"2002-06-16","age":23},"record":{"wins":12,"losses":4,"draws":0,"raw":"12-4-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.09,"str_acc":43,"sapm":4.95,"td_avg":0.94,"td_acc":19,"td_def":50,"sub_avg":0.5},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":154772,"event_name":"UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3","event_date":"2025-07-19T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"New Orleans, Louisiana, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Split","details":"Sal D'amato 28 - 29.Todd Singletary 29 - 28.Chris Lee 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":2779,"full_name":"Nikolay Veretennikov","first_name":"Nikolay","last_name":"Veretennikov","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/nikolay-veretennikov.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/nikolay-veretennikov.png"}]},{"fight_id":32558,"event_name":"UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2","event_date":"2025-02-08T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Sydney, New South Wales, Australia","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Sal D'amato 27 - 30.Charlie Keech 27 - 30.Clemens Werner 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5393,"full_name":"Jake Matthews","first_name":"Jake","last_name":"Matthews","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jake-matthews.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/jake-matthews.png"}],"strikes_landed":64,"strikes_attempted":152,"strike_pct":42,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":6,"td_pct":17,"ctrl_time_sec":136},{"fight_id":33025,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2","event_date":"2024-02-24T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Miguel Jimenez 28 - 29.Junichiro Kamijo 28 - 29.Rick Winter 26 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3638,"full_name":"Daniel Zellhuber","first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Zellhuber","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/daniel-zellhuber.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/daniel-zellhuber.png"}],"strikes_landed":91,"strikes_attempted":249,"strike_pct":37,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":25},{"fight_id":33313,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva","event_date":"2023-07-15T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punches to Head From Guard","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":245,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6552,"full_name":"Ottman Azaitar","first_name":"Ottman","last_name":"Azaitar","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/ottman-azaitar.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/ottman-azaitar.png"}]},{"fight_id":33562,"event_name":"UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski","event_date":"2023-02-11T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Perth, Western Australia, Australia","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Ben Cartlidge 27 - 30.Evan Field 27 - 30.Garth Harriman 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5512,"full_name":"Jamie Mullarkey","first_name":"Jamie","last_name":"Mullarkey","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jamie-mullarkey.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/jamie-mullarkey.png"}],"strikes_landed":31,"strikes_attempted":78,"strike_pct":40,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":2,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":10}]},"fighter2":{"id":6829,"name":{"full":"Charles Radtke","first":"Charles","last":"Radtke"},"record":{"wins":11,"losses":5,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":2,"winsBySub":1,"winsByDec":1,"losses":2,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":69,"reach_inches":72,"weight_lbs":170,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":2.8,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":2.63,"striking_accuracy":54},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.32,"takedown_accuracy":30,"takedown_defense":100,"submission_average":0.7}},"profile":{"id":6829,"full_name":"Charles Radtke","nickname":"Chuck Buffalo","page_nickname":"Chuck Buffalo","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/feedf3053472fe56","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/charles-radtke.png","physical":{"height_in":69,"height_cm":175,"weight_lb":170,"weight_kg":77,"reach_in":72,"reach_cm":182,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1990-07-09","age":35},"record":{"wins":11,"losses":5,"draws":0,"raw":"11-5-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":2.8,"str_acc":54,"sapm":2.63,"td_avg":1.32,"td_acc":30,"td_def":100,"sub_avg":0.7},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":279895,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama","event_date":"2025-11-01T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Submission","details":"Rear Naked Choke","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":269,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4633,"full_name":"Daniel Frunza","first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Frunza","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/daniel-frunza.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/daniel-frunza.png"}],"strikes_landed":163,"strikes_attempted":214,"strike_pct":76,"tds_landed":3,"tds_attempted":5,"td_pct":60,"ctrl_time_sec":701},{"fight_id":64686,"event_name":"UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena","event_date":"2025-05-10T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Montreal, Quebec, Canada","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punch to Head At Distance","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":26,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6267,"full_name":"Mike Malott","first_name":"Mike","last_name":"Malott","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/mike-malott.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/mike-malott.png"}],"strikes_landed":10,"strikes_attempted":33,"strike_pct":30,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0},{"fight_id":32652,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates","event_date":"2024-11-09T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punches to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":51,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3812,"full_name":"Matthew Semelsberger","first_name":"Matthew","last_name":"Semelsberger","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/matthew-semelsberger.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/matthew-semelsberger.png"}]},{"fight_id":32865,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov","event_date":"2024-06-08T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Louisville, Kentucky, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Knee to Body At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":287,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4667,"full_name":"Carlos Prates","first_name":"Carlos","last_name":"Prates","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/carlos-prates.png","hero_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/carlos-prates-2.png"}]},{"fight_id":33066,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov","event_date":"2024-02-03T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punch to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":287,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5534,"full_name":"Gilbert Urbina","first_name":"Gilbert","last_name":"Urbina","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/gilbert-urbina.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/gilbert-urbina.png"}]}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"Charles Radtke is riding a wild comeback wave right now. After getting absolutely starched by Mike Malott in Montreal back in May, Chuck Buffalo bounced back huge in November with a slick third round rear naked choke over Daniel Frunza. That win came after he landed 163 strikes and controlled over 11 minutes, showing he's got the gas tank and grappling to grind when he needs to. Francisco Prado is in a rough spot though, dropping three straight decisions including losses to Jake Matthews and Nikolay Veretennikov this year.\n\nHere's the thing about Radtke. When he's on, he's dangerous as hell. That first round knockout of Matthew Semelsberger in November 2024 was nasty, just 51 seconds of violence. But he's also been finished twice by killers like Carlos Prates (that body knee was brutal) and Malott. Prado's got some pop too, remember when he finished Ottman Azaitar from the guard back in 2023. But lately he's been stuck in decision losses, throwing volume but not getting the finishes.\n\nThe matchup favors Radtke's momentum and finishing ability. Prado's been in there with tough guys but he's 0 for 3 in his last outings, all going to the scorecards. Radtke's shown he can end fights both standing and on the mat. One guy's trying to stop the bleeding, the other's looking to keep his streak alive.","key_storylines":["Radtke looking to make it two straight after the Frunza submission","Prado desperate to snap a three fight losing skid","Both guys have knockout power but different paths lately"],"finishing_window":"If Radtke's gonna get it done, expect fireworks in the first five minutes when his confidence is highest."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Francisco Prado","difference":"46.1%","values":{"fighter1":4.09,"fighter2":2.8}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Charles Radtke","difference":"40.4%","values":{"fighter1":0.94,"fighter2":1.32}},"defense":{"advantage":"Charles Radtke","difference":"100.0%","values":{"fighter1":50,"fighter2":100}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3511-francisco-prado","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/6829-charles-radtke","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}