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Alessandro Costa stepped in on short notice to save this card, replacing Imanol Rodriguez at a 130 pound catchweight. Costa's coming off a brutal body shot finish over Stewart Nicoll back in April, and before that he was putting on a show against Steve Erceg at UFC 295, landing 85 strikes even in a decision loss. The Brazilian's got nasty ground and pound too, remember when he elbowed Jimmy Flick into oblivion from half guard.\n\nMatt Schnell's been through the wars lately. He snapped a rough skid with a decision win over Jimmy Flick in April 2025, but then got caught in a guillotine by Joseph Morales just last November. That's three submission losses in his last five, and it's a pattern you can't ignore. Before the Flick win, Cody Durden and Steve Erceg both finished him, Erceg with that second round punch that put him out cold.\n\nHere's the thing though, Schnell can still bang when he's on. That 75% striking accuracy against Flick showed he's still got the skills, and he controlled over three minutes of that fight. Costa's aggressive style plays right into the kind of chaos Schnell thrives in. Both guys are Orthodox, both love to throw down, and neither's known for playing it safe. Costa's takedown defense looked solid against Erceg, stuffing five of six attempts.\n\nThe real question is whether Schnell's chin holds up or if Costa's pressure breaks him like we've seen happen before. This catchweight setup adds another wrinkle, nobody cutting hard, both guys coming in ready to scrap from the opening bell.","key_storylines":["Costa steps in late, saves the card at catchweight","Schnell's submission defense remains a glaring weakness","Brazilian's body work could be the difference maker"],"finishing_window":"Second round is where both guys have done their best work, expect the pace to hit another level there."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Matt Schnell","difference":"9.1%","values":{"fighter1":3.73,"fighter2":4.07}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Alessandro Costa","difference":"31.7%","values":{"fighter1":0.79,"fighter2":0.6}},"defense":{"advantage":"Alessandro Costa","difference":"100.0%","values":{"fighter1":86,"fighter2":43}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3611-alessandro-costa","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4261-matt-schnell","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}