AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


This is a wild one for the flyweight division. Rose Namajunas has been on a tear since moving down, winning three straight including that perfect 5 for 5 takedown performance against Tracy Cortez in Denver. She's looked sharp, mixing up her striking with slick grappling, and just beat Miranda Maverick in June to keep her momentum rolling. Meanwhile, Alexa Grasso is trying to find her footing after losing that title to Valentina Shevchenko at Noche UFC, then dropping another decision to Natalia Silva in May. That's two straight losses for the former champ.
Here's the thing, Grasso's still dangerous as hell. Everyone remembers when she shocked the world with that rear naked choke on Shevchenko back at UFC 285 to win the belt. That submission was nasty, and it showed she can pull off the unexpected. But Rose has been the more active fighter lately, and she's looked comfortable at 125. Her movement and footwork have always been slick, and now she's adding in that wrestling game.
The technical matchup is fascinating. Both are orthodox strikers who can work at range, but Rose has been way more willing to mix in takedowns lately. Grasso landed 262 strikes in that split draw rematch with Shevchenko, so her volume can be crazy high. Rose's striking accuracy has been solid too, and she's controlling almost seven minutes per fight with her ground game. This could come down to whether Grasso can keep it standing and find her rhythm, or if Rose drags her into deep water with that cardio and wrestling pressure.
UFC Record Breakdown
If this one's getting finished, it'll be in the championship rounds when Rose's pace and pressure start breaking Grasso down.

Rose Namajunas finish map

Rose Namajunas breakdown
This is a wild one for the flyweight division. Rose Namajunas has been on a tear since moving down, winning three straight including that perfect 5 for 5 takedown performance against Tracy Cortez in Denver. She's looked sharp, mixing up her striking with slick grappling, and just beat Miranda Maverick in June to keep her momentum rolling. Meanwhile, Alexa Grasso is trying to find her footing after losing that title to Valentina Shevchenko at Noche UFC, then dropping another decision to Natalia Silva in May. That's two straight losses for the former champ.
Here's the thing, Grasso's still dangerous as hell. Everyone remembers when she shocked the world with that rear naked choke on Shevchenko back at UFC 285 to win the belt. That submission was nasty, and it showed she can pull off the unexpected. But Rose has been the more active fighter lately, and she's looked comfortable at 125. Her movement and footwork have always been slick, and now she's adding in that wrestling game.
The technical matchup is fascinating. Both are orthodox strikers who can work at range, but Rose has been way more willing to mix in takedowns lately. Grasso landed 262 strikes in that split draw rematch with Shevchenko, so her volume can be crazy high. Rose's striking accuracy has been solid too, and she's controlling almost seven minutes per fight with her ground game. This could come down to whether Grasso can keep it standing and find her rhythm, or if Rose drags her into deep water with that cardio and wrestling pressure.
If this one's getting finished, it'll be in the championship rounds when Rose's pace and pressure start breaking Grasso down.

Alexa Grasso finish map

Alexa Grasso breakdown
Pace delta
+0.4 significant strikes/min
Alexa Grasso averages 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Rose Namajunas sits at 3.7.
AI confidence
84%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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