{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3829-5169-michael-chandler-vs-mauricio-ruffy","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3829-5169-michael-chandler-vs-mauricio-ruffy","generated_at":"2026-04-22T09:13:57.507Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":350,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":3829,"name":{"full":"Michael Chandler","first":"Michael","last":"Chandler"},"record":{"wins":23,"losses":10,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":2,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":0,"losses":5,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":68,"reach_inches":71,"weight_lbs":155,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.04,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":4.52,"striking_accuracy":49},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.96,"takedown_accuracy":41,"takedown_defense":61,"submission_average":0.6}},"profile":{"id":3829,"full_name":"Michael Chandler","nickname":"Iron","page_nickname":"Iron","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/4b93a88f3b1de35b","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/michael-chandler.png","physical":{"height_in":68,"height_cm":172,"weight_lb":155,"weight_kg":70,"reach_in":71,"reach_cm":180,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1986-04-24","age":39},"record":{"wins":23,"losses":10,"draws":0,"raw":"23-10-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.04,"str_acc":49,"sapm":4.52,"td_avg":1.96,"td_acc":41,"td_def":61,"sub_avg":0.6},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":32448,"event_name":"UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes","event_date":"2025-04-12T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Miami, Florida, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Elbows to Head From Mount","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":187,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4541,"full_name":"Paddy Pimblett","first_name":"Paddy","last_name":"Pimblett","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/paddy-pimblett.png","hero_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/paddy.png"}]},{"fight_id":32634,"event_name":"UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic","event_date":"2024-11-16T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"New York City, New York, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Eric Colon 46 - 49.Junichiro Kamijo 46 - 49.Ron McCarthy 45 - 49.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":2661,"full_name":"Charles Oliveira","first_name":"Charles","last_name":"Oliveira","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/charles-oliveira.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/charles-oliveira.png"}],"strikes_landed":150,"strikes_attempted":181,"strike_pct":83,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":1,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":119},{"fight_id":33656,"event_name":"UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira","event_date":"2022-11-12T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"New York City, New York, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Submission","details":"Rear Naked Choke","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":120,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":2574,"full_name":"Dustin Poirier","first_name":"Dustin","last_name":"Poirier","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/dustin-poirier.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/dustin-poirier.png"}],"strikes_landed":65,"strikes_attempted":135,"strike_pct":48,"tds_landed":3,"tds_attempted":7,"td_pct":43,"ctrl_time_sec":339},{"fight_id":33933,"event_name":"UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje","event_date":"2022-05-07T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Phoenix, Arizona, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Kick to Head At DistanceFront kick","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":17,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3092,"full_name":"Tony Ferguson","first_name":"Tony","last_name":"Ferguson","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/tony-ferguson.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/tony-ferguson.png"}],"strikes_landed":43,"strikes_attempted":73,"strike_pct":59,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":1,"td_pct":100,"ctrl_time_sec":149},{"fight_id":34181,"event_name":"UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2","event_date":"2021-11-06T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"New York City, New York, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Sal D'amato 28 - 29.Derek Cleary 28 - 29.Doug Crosby 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5210,"full_name":"Justin Gaethje","first_name":"Justin","last_name":"Gaethje","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/justin-gaethje.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/justin-gaethje.png"}],"strikes_landed":104,"strikes_attempted":246,"strike_pct":42,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":6,"td_pct":17,"ctrl_time_sec":3}]},"fighter2":{"id":5169,"name":{"full":"Mauricio Ruffy","first":"Mauricio","last":"Ruffy"},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":2,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":3,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":1,"losses":1,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":71,"reach_inches":75,"weight_lbs":155,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.19,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":4.09,"striking_accuracy":58},"grappling":{"takedown_average":0,"takedown_accuracy":0,"takedown_defense":85,"submission_average":0}},"profile":{"id":5169,"full_name":"Mauricio Ruffy","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/9c393e836a852f30","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/mauricio-ruffy.png","physical":{"height_in":71,"height_cm":180,"weight_lb":155,"weight_kg":70,"reach_in":75,"reach_cm":190,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1996-06-17","age":29},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":2,"draws":0,"raw":"13-2-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.19,"str_acc":58,"sapm":4.09,"td_avg":0,"td_acc":0,"td_def":85,"sub_avg":0},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":347646,"event_name":"UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2","event_date":"2026-01-31T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Sydney, New South Wales, Australia","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punches to Head On Ground","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":270,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5907,"full_name":"Rafael Fiziev","first_name":"Rafael","last_name":"Fiziev","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/rafael-fiziev.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/rafael-fiziev.png"}]},{"fight_id":204530,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho","event_date":"2025-09-06T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Paris, Ile-de-France, France","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Submission","details":"Rear Naked Choke","finish_round":2,"finish_time_sec":176,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5820,"full_name":"Benoit Saint Denis","first_name":"Benoit","last_name":"Denis","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/benoit-saint-denis.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/benoit-saint-denis.png"}],"strikes_landed":6,"strikes_attempted":18,"strike_pct":33,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":34},{"fight_id":32514,"event_name":"UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev","event_date":"2025-03-08T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Kick to Head At DistanceWheel kick","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":127,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4834,"full_name":"King Green","first_name":"King","last_name":"Green","profile_url":"https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mma/players/full/2502364.png","hero_url":"https://www.ufc.com/images/styles/athlete_bio_full_body/s3/2025-03/GREEN_KING_L_03-08.png"}]},{"fight_id":32637,"event_name":"UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic","event_date":"2024-11-16T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"New York City, New York, USA","weight_class":"Catch Weight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Eric Colon 28 - 29.Ron McCarthy 28 - 29.Bryan Miner 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5027,"full_name":"James Llontop","first_name":"James","last_name":"Llontop","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/james-llontop.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/james-llontop.png"}],"strikes_landed":74,"strikes_attempted":120,"strike_pct":62,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":16},{"fight_id":32917,"event_name":"UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg","event_date":"2024-05-04T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil","weight_class":"Lightweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punches to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":282,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5512,"full_name":"Jamie Mullarkey","first_name":"Jamie","last_name":"Mullarkey","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jamie-mullarkey.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/jamie-mullarkey.png"}],"strikes_landed":25,"strikes_attempted":40,"strike_pct":63,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":1,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":4}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"This is straight up chaos meets experience. Mauricio Ruffy is coming off that nasty ground and pound finish of Rafael Fiziev in Sydney, and the Brazilian's been calling for bigger fights. He just told Sherdog he wants five rounders or a trip to the White House next, which is wild confidence for a guy who's still building his name. Meanwhile, Michael Chandler is trying to stop a brutal slide after dropping three straight to Paddy Pimblett, Charles Oliveira, and Dustin Poirier.\n\nHere's the thing though. Ruffy's got serious finishing power. He's stopped four of his last five UFC fights. That wheel kick that flatlined King Green was absolutely sick, and he put away Jamie Mullarkey in under five minutes back in Rio. But he also got caught by Benoit Saint Denis with a rear naked choke, so the grappling defense isn't bulletproof. Chandler's been in wars with everyone. Remember that front kick that dropped Tony Ferguson? Dude can still crack, and he landed 150 strikes against Oliveira even in a losing effort.\n\nThe matchup is fascinating because Chandler's wrestling could be the equalizer if Ruffy gets too wild with his striking. But Chandler's also been getting caught lately, and Ruffy's the kind of young, hungry fighter who smells blood when veterans start slowing down. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys, just in completely different directions.\n\nUPD (5th of April): The UFC officially confirmed this matchup for the White House event on June 14th, making Ruffy's callout a reality. The Brazilian literally manifested this fight into existence after saying he wanted the White House trip, and now he's getting his wish against a former title challenger.\n\nUPD (5th of April): Chandler's taking this fight at the most historic UFC venue ever instead of chasing the Conor McGregor payday he's been waiting on for years. It's a massive shift in direction for Iron, who now has to prove he's still elite against one of the division's most dangerous rising finishers.","key_storylines":["Ruffy riding momentum after stopping Fiziev in Sydney","Chandler desperate to snap three fight losing streak","Young finisher versus battle tested veteran at crossroads"],"finishing_window":"Expect fireworks early when Ruffy's looking to make a statement and Chandler knows he can't afford to dig another hole."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Mauricio Ruffy","difference":"3.7%","values":{"fighter1":4.04,"fighter2":4.19}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Michael Chandler","difference":"Infinity%","values":{"fighter1":1.96,"fighter2":0}},"defense":{"advantage":"Mauricio Ruffy","difference":"39.3%","values":{"fighter1":61,"fighter2":85}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3829-michael-chandler","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/5169-mauricio-ruffy","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}