{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3973-5104-aaron-pico-vs-patricio-freire","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/3973-5104-aaron-pico-vs-patricio-freire","generated_at":"2026-04-10T14:28:06.738Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":409,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":3973,"name":{"full":"Aaron Pico","first":"Aaron","last":"Pico"},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":5,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":0,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":0,"losses":1,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":68,"reach_inches":70,"weight_lbs":145,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":3.88,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":2.39,"striking_accuracy":44},"grappling":{"takedown_average":8.96,"takedown_accuracy":66,"takedown_defense":0,"submission_average":0}},"profile":{"id":3973,"full_name":"Aaron Pico","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/5537efc6e496dd84","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/aaron-pico-profile.png","physical":{"height_in":68,"height_cm":172,"weight_lb":145,"weight_kg":65,"reach_in":70,"reach_cm":177,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1996-09-23","age":29},"record":{"wins":13,"losses":5,"draws":0,"raw":"13-5-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":3.88,"str_acc":44,"sapm":2.39,"td_avg":8.96,"td_acc":66,"td_def":0,"sub_avg":0},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":187894,"event_name":"UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev","event_date":"2025-08-16T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Chicago, Illinois, USA","weight_class":"Featherweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Spinning Back Elbow to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":201,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3517,"full_name":"Lerone Murphy","first_name":"Lerone","last_name":"Murphy","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/lerone-murphy.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/lerone-murphy.png"}],"strikes_landed":13,"strikes_attempted":30,"strike_pct":43,"tds_landed":2,"tds_attempted":3,"td_pct":67,"ctrl_time_sec":121}]},"fighter2":{"id":5104,"name":{"full":"Patricio Freire","first":"Patricio","last":"Freire"},"record":{"wins":37,"losses":8,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":0,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":1,"losses":1,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":66,"reach_inches":67,"weight_lbs":145,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":2.68,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":4.23,"striking_accuracy":43},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.49,"takedown_accuracy":33,"takedown_defense":88,"submission_average":0.6}},"profile":{"id":5104,"full_name":"Patricio Freire","nickname":"Pitbull","page_nickname":"Pitbull","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/98a58c26c5b1ed17","profile_url":"https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mma/players/full/2532870.png","physical":{"height_in":66,"height_cm":167,"weight_lb":145,"weight_kg":65,"reach_in":67,"reach_cm":170,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1987-07-07","age":38},"record":{"wins":37,"losses":8,"draws":0,"raw":"37-8-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":2.68,"str_acc":43,"sapm":4.23,"td_avg":1.49,"td_acc":33,"td_def":88,"sub_avg":0.6},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":154768,"event_name":"UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3","event_date":"2025-07-19T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"New Orleans, Louisiana, USA","weight_class":"Featherweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Eric Colon 28 - 29.Sal D'amato 28 - 29.Junichiro Kamijo 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4721,"full_name":"Dan Ige","first_name":"Dan","last_name":"Ige","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/dan-ige.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/dan-ige.png"}]},{"fight_id":32449,"event_name":"UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes","event_date":"2025-04-12T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Miami, Florida, USA","weight_class":"Featherweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Eliseo Rodriguez 27 - 30.Junichiro Kamijo 27 - 30.Sal D'amato 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5964,"full_name":"Yair Rodriguez","first_name":"Yair","last_name":"Rodriguez","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/yair-rodriguez.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/yair-rodriguez.png"}],"strikes_landed":23,"strikes_attempted":60,"strike_pct":38,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":4,"td_pct":25,"ctrl_time_sec":63}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"Pitbull finally made it to the UFC, and they're throwing him straight into deep waters against Aaron Pico. The Brazilian legend just bounced back from that decision loss to Yair Rodriguez back in April with a solid win over Dan Ige in July, taking all three rounds on the scorecards. Meanwhile, Pico's coming off a rough night in Chicago where Lerone Murphy caught him with a spinning back elbow in the first round. That finish stung, especially after Pico was looking sharp early with his wrestling.\n\nHere's what makes this one interesting. Pitbull's got that veteran savvy and has seen everything in his career, while Pico's still trying to put it all together at the highest level. The Jackson Wink product showed good wrestling against Murphy before getting caught, landing 2 of 3 takedowns and controlling over two minutes. But Pitbull's no stranger to scrambles and has fought the best.\n\nThis feels like a classic test for both guys. Pico needs to prove he can hang with elite competition without getting caught by something wild. Pitbull's looking to build momentum in his UFC run and show he's still got plenty left in the tank. The grappling exchanges could get nasty if Pico can get this to the mat, but Pitbull's dangerous everywhere.","key_storylines":["Pitbull making noise in his UFC campaign after Bellator days","Pico trying to rebound from that brutal Murphy knockout","Battle of orthodox featherweights hunting for division relevance"],"finishing_window":"Watch for fireworks in the first two rounds when both guys are fresh and looking to make a statement."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Aaron Pico","difference":"44.8%","values":{"fighter1":3.88,"fighter2":2.68}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Aaron Pico","difference":"501.3%","values":{"fighter1":8.96,"fighter2":1.49}},"defense":{"advantage":"Patricio Freire","difference":"Infinity%","values":{"fighter1":0,"fighter2":88}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/3973-aaron-pico","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/5104-patricio-freire","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}