{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4238-5728-cory-sandhagen-vs-mario-bautista","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4238-5728-cory-sandhagen-vs-mario-bautista","generated_at":"2026-06-14T03:17:26.569Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":453,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":4238,"name":{"full":"Cory Sandhagen","first":"Cory","last":"Sandhagen"},"record":{"wins":18,"losses":6,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":5,"winsBySub":1,"winsByDec":5,"losses":5,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":71,"reach_inches":70,"weight_lbs":135,"stance":"Switch"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.86,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":3.47,"striking_accuracy":45},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.15,"takedown_accuracy":34,"takedown_defense":56,"submission_average":0.2}},"profile":{"id":4238,"full_name":"Cory Sandhagen","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/65f09bacd3957381","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/cory-sandhagen.png","physical":{"height_in":71,"height_cm":180,"weight_lb":135,"weight_kg":61,"reach_in":70,"reach_cm":177,"stance":"Switch","dob":"1992-04-20","age":34},"record":{"wins":18,"losses":6,"draws":0,"raw":"18-6-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.86,"str_acc":45,"sapm":3.47,"td_avg":1.15,"td_acc":34,"td_def":56,"sub_avg":0.2},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":237932,"event_name":"UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2","event_date":"2025-10-04T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Bantamweight","is_title_fight":true,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - 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Sandhagen went five hard rounds in a title eliminator back in August 2024, then bounced back with a nasty knee injury finish over Deiveson Figueiredo before dropping a decision to Merab Dvalishvili in his title shot. Bautista got shut down by Umar in three rounds last October but came back strong, submitting Vinicius Oliveira with a rear naked choke in February. Both guys are switch stance fighters out of elite camps, and both need this win badly to stay in the top ten conversation.\n\nHere's the thing about Sandhagen. The dude is one of the most technical strikers at 135, with slick movement and those long, rangy strikes that give everyone problems. He landed 149 strikes against Merab even in a losing effort and has been breaking down striking techniques on social media lately, showing he's still deep in the game mentally. Bautista is no slouch either, landing 173 strikes in his win over Patchy Mix and showing serious volume. He's also got that grappling threat, hitting five takedowns and getting the finish against Oliveira.\n\nThe matchup comes down to whether Bautista can close the distance and make it ugly, or if Sandhagen can keep him at the end of those long strikes. Sandhagen's fought the absolute best in the division, going five rounds multiple times. Bautista's been on a tear with four straight wins before the Umar loss, including that wild split decision over Jose Aldo. Both guys know exactly what's at stake here.","key_storylines":["Both fighters trying to rebound from Umar losses","Sandhagen's striking range versus Bautista's pressure and grappling","Winner stays relevant in stacked bantamweight top ten"],"finishing_window":"If Bautista gets inside and finds his rhythm in rounds two or three, that's when the grappling exchanges could get wild and lead to a finish."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Mario Bautista","difference":"9.1%","values":{"fighter1":4.86,"fighter2":5.3}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Mario Bautista","difference":"66.1%","values":{"fighter1":1.15,"fighter2":1.91}},"defense":{"advantage":"Cory Sandhagen","difference":"1.8%","values":{"fighter1":56,"fighter2":55}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4238-cory-sandhagen","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/5728-mario-bautista","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}