{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4313-4591-ismail-naurdiev-vs-marvin-vettori","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4313-4591-ismail-naurdiev-vs-marvin-vettori","generated_at":"2026-05-13T23:04:33.581Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":466,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":4313,"name":{"full":"Ismail Naurdiev","first":"Ismail","last":"Naurdiev"},"record":{"wins":25,"losses":8,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":1,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":3,"losses":3,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":70,"reach_inches":74,"weight_lbs":185,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":3.66,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":1.75,"striking_accuracy":52},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.48,"takedown_accuracy":40,"takedown_defense":73,"submission_average":0.2}},"profile":{"id":4313,"full_name":"Ismail Naurdiev","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/6a96ad1bc34fb113","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/ismail-naurdiev.png","physical":{"height_in":70,"height_cm":177,"weight_lb":185,"weight_kg":83,"reach_in":74,"reach_cm":187,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1996-08-18","age":29},"record":{"wins":25,"losses":8,"draws":0,"raw":"25-8-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":3.66,"str_acc":52,"sapm":1.75,"td_avg":1.48,"td_acc":40,"td_def":73,"sub_avg":0.2},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":305224,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker","event_date":"2025-11-22T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Doha, Qatar","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punch to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":86,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6152,"full_name":"Ryan Loder","first_name":"Ryan","last_name":"Loder","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/ryan-loder.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/ryan-loder.png"}],"strikes_landed":3,"strikes_attempted":6,"strike_pct":50,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":2},{"fight_id":130057,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.","event_date":"2025-06-21T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Baku, Azerbaijan","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Vito Paolillo 26 - 29.Clemens Werner 26 - 29.Ben Cartlidge 25 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3196,"full_name":"JunYong Park","first_name":"JunYong","last_name":"Park","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/junyong-park-profile.PNG","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/junyong-park.png"}]},{"fight_id":129124,"event_name":"UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway","event_date":"2024-10-26T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Sal D'amato 27 - 30.Jacob Montalvo 27 - 30.Tony Weeks 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":2830,"full_name":"Bruno Silva","first_name":"Bruno","last_name":"Silva","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/bruno-silva.png","hero_url":"https://dmxg5wxfqgb4u.cloudfront.net/styles/athlete_bio_full_body/s3/2024-10/4/SILVA_BRUNO_L_3-30.png"},{"fighter_id":3213,"full_name":"Bruno Silva","first_name":"Bruno","last_name":"Silva","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/bruno-silva.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/bruno-silva.png"}],"strikes_landed":107,"strikes_attempted":166,"strike_pct":64,"tds_landed":3,"tds_attempted":13,"td_pct":23,"ctrl_time_sec":351},{"fight_id":35019,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo","event_date":"2020-02-29T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Norfolk, Virginia, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Brian Costello 28 - 29.Chris Lee 27 - 29.Lisa Cuellar 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3713,"full_name":"Sean Brady","first_name":"Sean","last_name":"Brady","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/sean-brady.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/sean-brady.png"}],"strikes_landed":38,"strikes_attempted":88,"strike_pct":43,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":1,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":18},{"fight_id":35212,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier","event_date":"2019-09-28T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Copenhagen, Denmark","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Andreas Gruner 26 - 30.Thomas Knudsen 25 - 30.Maciej Motylewski 25 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5498,"full_name":"Siyar Bahadurzada","first_name":"Siyar","last_name":"Bahadurzada","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/siyar-bahadurzada.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/siyar-bahadurzada.png"}]}]},"fighter2":{"id":4591,"name":{"full":"Marvin Vettori","first":"Marvin","last":"Vettori"},"record":{"wins":19,"losses":10,"draws":1,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":0,"winsBySub":2,"winsByDec":7,"losses":8,"draws":1}},"physical":{"height_inches":72,"reach_inches":74,"weight_lbs":185,"stance":"Southpaw"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.68,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":4.52,"striking_accuracy":45},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.43,"takedown_accuracy":45,"takedown_defense":65,"submission_average":0.4}},"profile":{"id":4591,"full_name":"Marvin Vettori","nickname":"The Italian Dream","page_nickname":"The Italian Dream","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/7acbb0972e75281a","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/marvin-vettori.png","physical":{"height_in":72,"height_cm":182,"weight_lb":185,"weight_kg":83,"reach_in":74,"reach_cm":187,"stance":"Southpaw","dob":"1993-09-20","age":32},"record":{"wins":19,"losses":10,"draws":1,"raw":"19-10-1"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.68,"str_acc":45,"sapm":4.52,"td_avg":1.43,"td_acc":45,"td_def":65,"sub_avg":0.4},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":313690,"event_name":"UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2","event_date":"2025-12-06T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Derek Cleary 28 - 29.Eric Colon 28 - 29.Junichiro Kamijo 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3014,"full_name":"Brunno Ferreira","first_name":"Brunno","last_name":"Ferreira","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/brunno-ferreira.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/brunno-ferreira.png"}]},{"fight_id":154771,"event_name":"UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3","event_date":"2025-07-19T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"New Orleans, Louisiana, USA","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Todd Maxwell 27 - 30.Junichiro Kamijo 27 - 30.Derek Cleary 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3315,"full_name":"Brendan Allen","first_name":"Brendan","last_name":"Allen","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/brendan-allen.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/brendan-allen.png"}]},{"fight_id":32497,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2","event_date":"2025-03-15T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Mike Bell 46 - 49.Derek Cleary 46 - 49.Sal D'amato 46 - 49.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3391,"full_name":"Roman Dolidze","first_name":"Roman","last_name":"Dolidze","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/roman-dolidze.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/roman-dolidze.png"}]},{"fight_id":33362,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier","event_date":"2023-06-17T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Mike Bell 45 - 49.Ben Cartlidge 45 - 49.Sal D'amato 46 - 48.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":2842,"full_name":"Jared Cannonier","first_name":"Jared","last_name":"Cannonier","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jared-cannonier.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/jared-cannonier.png"}]},{"fight_id":33495,"event_name":"UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3","event_date":"2023-03-18T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"London, England, United Kingdom","weight_class":"Middleweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Ben Cartlidge 28 - 29.David Lethaby 28 - 29.Paul Sutherland 27 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3391,"full_name":"Roman Dolidze","first_name":"Roman","last_name":"Dolidze","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/roman-dolidze.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/roman-dolidze.png"}],"strikes_landed":106,"strikes_attempted":218,"strike_pct":49,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"Vettori's in a rough spot right now. The Italian Dream has dropped three straight, including back to back losses to Roman Dolidze (twice) and most recently Brendan Allen in July. That's a tough slide for a guy who once challenged for the belt. Meanwhile, Naurdiev is coming off a nasty first round knockout of Ryan Loder in November, landing that clean punch at distance just 86 seconds in. Before that he bounced back from a decision loss to JunYong Park with a solid unanimous decision over Bruno Silva at UFC 308.\n\nThis is a classic crossroads fight. Vettori's southpaw pressure game has always been his bread and butter, but he's been figured out lately by guys who can match his pace or counter his wrestling. Naurdiev showed serious power in that Loder finish, and he's been active at middleweight after spending time at welterweight earlier in his career. The Austrian from Top Team Salzburg has proven he can go three rounds and grind when needed.\n\nThe big question is whether Vettori can get back to what made him dangerous or if the losses have taken something out of him. He's still got that relentless forward pressure and cardio for days, but Naurdiev's got knockout power that could make Marvin think twice about walking forward. If Vettori can drag this into deep water and lean on his wrestling, he's got a path. But one clean shot from Naurdiev and this could be over quick, just like the Loder fight.","key_storylines":["Vettori desperately needs a win after three straight losses","Naurdiev's knockout power could end this early","Former title challenger fighting to stay relevant at middleweight"],"finishing_window":"If Naurdiev's going to land that big shot, it'll likely come in the first round when Vettori's pressing forward looking to establish his pace."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Marvin Vettori","difference":"27.9%","values":{"fighter1":3.66,"fighter2":4.68}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Ismail Naurdiev","difference":"3.5%","values":{"fighter1":1.48,"fighter2":1.43}},"defense":{"advantage":"Ismail Naurdiev","difference":"12.3%","values":{"fighter1":73,"fighter2":65}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4313-ismail-naurdiev","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4591-marvin-vettori","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}