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The Brazilian just signed a new UFC deal and has been grinding grappling hard after getting submitted by Anthony Smith and knocked out by Dustin Jacoby. That's a rough way to learn you need to tighten things up on the ground.\n\nSpivac is coming off a decision win over Ante Delija in February, but before that he had a brutal stretch. Jailton Almeida absolutely smoked him in under five minutes at UFC 311, landing punches from back control. The Polar Bear bounced back with that slick armbar over Marcin Tybura in their rematch, showing he's still dangerous when things hit the mat. But that loss to Ciryl Gane in Paris still stings, getting stopped in the second round.\n\nPetrino has been on a tear at heavyweight with three straight finishes, including that nasty rear naked choke of Austen Lane and the knockout of Thomas Petersen. He's looked way more comfortable at the heavier weight class, and all that grappling work with CM System could be huge here. Spivac loves to hunt submissions, but Petrino's been specifically training takedown defense knowing what's coming.\n\nThis is a legit crossroads fight for both guys. Spivac needs to prove he can hang with the younger, hungrier heavyweights, while Petrino wants to show those light heavyweight losses were just growing pains before finding his real home.","key_storylines":["Petrino's new contract and grappling obsession after brutal submissions","Spivac's submission game versus Petrino's revamped ground defense","Both fighters rebounding from tough losses with everything to prove"],"finishing_window":"If Spivac can drag this to the mat early, we could see a finish in the first round, but if Petrino stuffs takedowns, his power becomes scary in round two."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Serghei Spivac","difference":"10.2%","values":{"fighter1":3.24,"fighter2":3.57}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Serghei Spivac","difference":"46.9%","values":{"fighter1":2.6,"fighter2":3.82}},"defense":{"advantage":"Vitor Petrino","difference":"25.4%","values":{"fighter1":79,"fighter2":63}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4431-vitor-petrino","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/6351-serghei-spivac","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}