{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4736-6633-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4736-6633-nate-diaz-vs-mike-perry","generated_at":"2026-05-14T23:38:08.994Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":470,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":4736,"name":{"full":"Nate Diaz","first":"Nate","last":"Diaz"},"record":{"wins":22,"losses":13,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":2,"winsBySub":10,"winsByDec":4,"losses":11,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":72,"reach_inches":76,"weight_lbs":170,"stance":"Southpaw"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.57,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":3.77,"striking_accuracy":45},"grappling":{"takedown_average":1.05,"takedown_accuracy":30,"takedown_defense":41,"submission_average":1.3}},"profile":{"id":4736,"full_name":"Nate Diaz","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/8355922d564b152c","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/nate-diaz.png","physical":{"height_in":72,"height_cm":182,"weight_lb":170,"weight_kg":77,"reach_in":76,"reach_cm":193,"stance":"Southpaw","dob":"1985-04-16","age":41},"record":{"wins":22,"losses":13,"draws":0,"raw":"22-13-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.57,"str_acc":45,"sapm":3.77,"td_avg":1.05,"td_acc":30,"td_def":41,"sub_avg":1.3},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":33737,"event_name":"UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson","event_date":"2022-09-10T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Submission","details":"Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard","finish_round":4,"finish_time_sec":172,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3092,"full_name":"Tony Ferguson","first_name":"Tony","last_name":"Ferguson","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/tony-ferguson.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/tony-ferguson.png"}],"strikes_landed":101,"strikes_attempted":217,"strike_pct":47,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0},{"fight_id":34393,"event_name":"UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2","event_date":"2021-06-12T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Glendale, Arizona, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Junichiro Kamijo 46 - 49.Derek Cleary 46 - 49.Brad Frank 46 - 49.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6617,"full_name":"Leon Edwards","first_name":"Leon","last_name":"Edwards","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/leon-edwards.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/leon-edwards.png"}],"strikes_landed":130,"strikes_attempted":223,"strike_pct":58,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":113},{"fight_id":35143,"event_name":"UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz","event_date":"2019-11-02T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"New York City, New York, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"TKO - Doctor's Stoppage","details":"Facial Cuts","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3747,"full_name":"Jorge Masvidal","first_name":"Jorge","last_name":"Masvidal","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jorge-masvidal.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/jorge-masvidal.png"}],"strikes_landed":125,"strikes_attempted":194,"strike_pct":64,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":2,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":44},{"fight_id":35266,"event_name":"UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2","event_date":"2019-08-17T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Anaheim, California, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Ron McCarthy 27 - 30.Derek Cleary 27 - 30.Guilherme Bravo 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5956,"full_name":"Anthony Pettis","first_name":"Anthony","last_name":"Pettis","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/anthony-pettis.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/anthony-pettis.png"}]},{"fight_id":36727,"event_name":"UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2","event_date":"2016-08-20T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Majority","details":"Derek Cleary 47 - 48.Glenn Trowbridge 47 - 47.Jeff Mullen 47 - 48.","finish_round":5,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"5 Rnd (5-5-5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":6661,"full_name":"Conor McGregor","first_name":"Conor","last_name":"McGregor","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/conor-mcgregor.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/conor-mcgregor.png"}]}]},"fighter2":{"id":6633,"name":{"full":"Mike Perry","first":"Mike","last":"Perry"},"record":{"wins":14,"losses":8,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":4,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":3,"losses":8,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":70,"reach_inches":71,"weight_lbs":170,"stance":"Orthodox"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":4.32,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":5.16,"striking_accuracy":47},"grappling":{"takedown_average":0.81,"takedown_accuracy":40,"takedown_defense":78,"submission_average":0.2}},"profile":{"id":6633,"full_name":"Mike Perry","nickname":"Platinum","page_nickname":"Platinum","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/f2b6fdb20675b11c","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/mike-perry.png","physical":{"height_in":70,"height_cm":177,"weight_lb":170,"weight_kg":77,"reach_in":71,"reach_cm":180,"stance":"Orthodox","dob":"1991-09-15","age":34},"record":{"wins":14,"losses":8,"draws":0,"raw":"14-8-0"},"career_stats":{"slpm":4.32,"str_acc":47,"sapm":5.16,"td_avg":0.81,"td_acc":40,"td_def":78,"sub_avg":0.2},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":34489,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland","event_date":"2021-04-10T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Derek Cleary 27 - 30.Junichiro Kamijo 27 - 30.Tony Weeks 26 - 30.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4863,"full_name":"Daniel Rodriguez","first_name":"Daniel","last_name":"Rodriguez","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/daniel-rodriguez.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/daniel-rodriguez.png"}]},{"fight_id":34666,"event_name":"UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez","event_date":"2020-11-21T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Dave Hagen 27 - 30.Chris Lee 28 - 29.Mike Bell 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":3824,"full_name":"Tim Means","first_name":"Tim","last_name":"Means","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/tim-means.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/tim-means.png"}]},{"fight_id":34899,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker","event_date":"2020-06-27T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"W","method":"Decision - Unanimous","details":"Mike Bell 28 - 29.Sal D'amato 28 - 29.Dave Hagen 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5208,"full_name":"Mickey Gall","first_name":"Mickey","last_name":"Gall","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/mickey-gall.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/mickey-gall.png"}],"strikes_landed":103,"strikes_attempted":158,"strike_pct":65,"tds_landed":1,"tds_attempted":1,"td_pct":100,"ctrl_time_sec":344},{"fight_id":35098,"event_name":"UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington","event_date":"2019-12-14T00:00:00Z","location_raw":"Las Vegas, Nevada, USA","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"KO/TKO","details":"Punches to Head At Distance","finish_round":1,"finish_time_sec":90,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":5684,"full_name":"Geoff Neal","first_name":"Geoff","last_name":"Neal","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/geoff-neal.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/geoff-neal.png"}],"strikes_landed":5,"strikes_attempted":10,"strike_pct":50,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":0,"ctrl_time_sec":0},{"fight_id":35278,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2","event_date":"2019-08-10T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Montevideo, Uruguay","weight_class":"Welterweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - Split","details":"Guilherme Bravo 29 - 28.Eric Colon 28 - 29.Joseph Terrell 28 - 29.","finish_round":3,"finish_time_sec":300,"time_format":"3 Rnd (5-5-5)","opponents":[{"fighter_id":4364,"full_name":"Vicente Luque","first_name":"Vicente","last_name":"Luque","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/vicente-luque.png","hero_url":"https://hero.agentmma.com/vicente-luque.png"}],"strikes_landed":116,"strikes_attempted":204,"strike_pct":57,"tds_landed":0,"tds_attempted":2,"td_pct":0,"ctrl_time_sec":200}]}},"ai_analysis":{"teaser":{"main_analysis":"Nate Diaz is back in the cage after a three year layoff, and fans are buzzing about the training footage that dropped just 12 days before fight night. The 41 year old hasn't competed in MMA since he choked out Tony Ferguson with that slick guillotine from bottom guard back in 2022. Since then? Just a couple boxing matches and a whole lot of nothing in 2025. Now he's stepping back in against Mike Perry, who's been grinding it out but hit a rough patch with three straight losses before beating Mickey Gall in 2020.\n\nHere's the thing about this matchup. Diaz is a volume striker who lives in the pocket, throws endless combinations, and has that black belt Cesar Gracie jiu jitsu when things hit the mat. Perry brings that raw power and orthodox pressure, but he got starched by Geoff Neal in 90 seconds and dropped decisions to Tim Means and Daniel Rodriguez. The Platinum one can crack, but Diaz has been in wars with killers like Conor McGregor (twice), Jorge Masvidal, and Leon Edwards. He knows how to eat shots and keep coming.\n\nThe big question everyone's asking is whether three years off at 41 years old is too much time away. Diaz looked sharp submitting Ferguson in the fourth round of their five rounder, landing 101 strikes before locking up that guillotine. His cardio has always been insane, and if Perry can't get him out early, this could turn into a long night. The Stockton native thrives in chaos and deep water, exactly where Perry has struggled when facing elite competition.","key_storylines":["Diaz returns to MMA after three year layoff at 41","Perry's power versus Diaz's volume and cardio game","Can the Stockton legend still go deep after the break"],"finishing_window":"If Perry's gonna land that big shot, it needs to happen early before Diaz finds his rhythm and turns this into a dog fight in rounds two and three."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Nate Diaz","difference":"5.8%","values":{"fighter1":4.57,"fighter2":4.32}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Nate Diaz","difference":"29.6%","values":{"fighter1":1.05,"fighter2":0.81}},"defense":{"advantage":"Mike Perry","difference":"90.2%","values":{"fighter1":41,"fighter2":78}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4736-nate-diaz","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/6633-mike-perry","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}