{"meta":{"type":"UFC_FIGHT_PREDICTION","url":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4838-5622-jose-ochoa-vs-clayton-carpenter","canonical":"https://agentmma.com/articles/4838-5622-jose-ochoa-vs-clayton-carpenter","generated_at":"2026-04-28T08:15:13.895Z","data_source":"AgentMMA AI","confidence_level":"HIGH"},"fight":{"id":363,"status":"upcoming","type":"MMA","organization":"UFC"},"fighters":{"fighter1":{"id":4838,"name":{"full":"Jose Ochoa","first":"Jose","last":"Ochoa"},"record":{"wins":8,"losses":2,"draws":0,"win_methods":{"winsByKO":1,"winsBySub":0,"winsByDec":0,"losses":2,"draws":0}},"physical":{"height_inches":67,"reach_inches":67,"weight_lbs":125,"stance":"Southpaw"},"stats":{"striking":{"strikes_landed_per_min":3.01,"strikes_absorbed_per_min":2.33,"striking_accuracy":37},"grappling":{"takedown_average":0.43,"takedown_accuracy":50,"takedown_defense":59,"submission_average":1.3}},"profile":{"id":4838,"full_name":"Jose Ochoa","nickname":"Kalzifer","page_nickname":"Kalzifer","url":"http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/88be62d6c1e6dadb","profile_url":"https://assets.agentmma.com/jose-ochoa.png","physical":{"height_in":67,"height_cm":170,"weight_lb":125,"weight_kg":56,"reach_in":67,"reach_cm":170,"stance":"Southpaw","dob":"2000-12-31","age":25},"record":{"wins":8,"losses":2,"draws":0,"raw":"8-2-0 (1 NC)"},"career_stats":{"slpm":3.01,"str_acc":37,"sapm":2.33,"td_avg":0.43,"td_acc":50,"td_def":59,"sub_avg":1.3},"is_parody":false,"strengths":[],"weaknesses":[],"next_fight":null,"news":[],"recent_fights":[]},"recent_fights":[{"fight_id":163032,"event_name":"UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder","event_date":"2025-07-26T01:00:00+01:00","location_raw":"Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates","weight_class":"Flyweight","is_title_fight":false,"result_code":"L","method":"Decision - 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After getting caught in a kimura by Jafel Filho back in October and dropping a decision to Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 311 in January, he's staring down a rough 0-2 start to 2025. The MMA Lab fighter showed he's got finishing instincts with back to back rear naked chokes in 2023 and 2024, but lately he's been on the wrong end of things. Jose \"Kalzifer\" Ochoa is coming off his own tough stretch too. The Peruvian southpaw got handled by Asu Almabayev in July, then dropped another decision to Lone'er Kavanagh in November.\n\nHere's what makes this interesting though. Ochoa showed he's got serious power when he slept Cody Durden with a punch just 11 seconds into round two back in June. That's the kind of threat that can change a fight in a heartbeat. Carpenter's been the more active grappler historically, but his last outing against Ulanbekov saw him land 86 strikes at 74% accuracy, so he's not afraid to stand and trade either.\n\nBoth guys train at legit camps. Carpenter's at MMA Lab grinding with some serious talent, while Ochoa reps Chute Boxe Diego Lima. The grappling edge probably goes to Carpenter based on his submission wins, but Ochoa's got that one punch power that keeps things dangerous. With UFC 328 now officially set for May 9th, both fighters know another loss puts them in a real tough spot in this stacked flyweight division. The matchup got confirmed earlier this week, and fans are watching closely to see who can stop the bleeding first.\n\nUPD (5th of April): The UFC made it official this week that Carpenter versus Ochoa goes down May 9th at UFC 328, giving both flyweights just over a month to prepare for what could be a make or break moment in their careers.\n\nUPD (5th of April): Fight week buzz is building as both guys enter camp knowing they're sitting on two fight losing streaks, making this a must win situation for whoever wants to stay relevant in the flyweight rankings.","key_storylines":["Carpenter hunting for his first win of 2025 after two straight losses","Ochoa's knockout power against Carpenter's submission threat","Both fighters desperate to avoid a third consecutive defeat"],"finishing_window":"If Carpenter can survive the early exchanges and drag this to the mat, round two is where his back takes get dangerous."},"advantages":{"striking":{"advantage":"Clayton Carpenter","difference":"21.6%","values":{"fighter1":3.01,"fighter2":3.66}},"grappling":{"advantage":"Clayton Carpenter","difference":"362.8%","values":{"fighter1":0.43,"fighter2":1.99}},"defense":{"advantage":"Jose Ochoa","difference":"59.5%","values":{"fighter1":59,"fighter2":37}}},"prediction_factors":["Statistical analysis","Fighting style matchup","Recent performance trends","Physical advantages","Historical data patterns"]},"related_links":{"fighter1_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/4838-jose-ochoa","fighter2_profile":"https://agentmma.com/fighters/5622-clayton-carpenter","all_articles":"https://agentmma.com/articles"}}