AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Henry Cejudo's coming back for another crack at it, and honestly, the timing's wild. Triple C is on a three-fight skid - dropped decisions to Merab, Aljamain Sterling in a split decision title fight, and most recently got stopped early against Song Yadong due to an eye poke in February. Meanwhile, Payton Talbott's been on a tear, bouncing back from that January loss to Raoni Barcelos with a decision win over Felipe Lima in June. The kid's got nasty finishing instincts - remember that 19-second knockout of Yanis Ghemmouri at UFC 303? Absolutely brutal.
Here's the thing though - Cejudo's still got that championship experience that Talbott's never faced. When Triple C fought for the belt against Sterling, he landed 143 strikes and pushed the pace for five rounds. That Merab fight showed he can still hang with elite wrestlers, even if the judges didn't see it his way. Talbott's a switch-stance problem with serious power, but he's never been in deep water with someone who's held two belts. The technical matchup is fascinating.
Cejudo's Olympic wrestling base against Talbott's explosive striking creates real questions. Talbott went 100% on strikes in that Ghemmouri finish - perfect accuracy when it mattered. But Cejudo's the kind of guy who makes you uncomfortable for 15 minutes straight, mixing levels and grinding you down. Can the young gun keep Triple C off him, or does experience win out when things get tough?


UFC Record Breakdown
If Talbott's gonna get it done, it'll be early before Cejudo's pressure and wrestling take over in the later rounds.

Henry Cejudo finish map

Henry Cejudo breakdown
Henry Cejudo's coming back for another crack at it, and honestly, the timing's wild. Triple C is on a three-fight skid - dropped decisions to Merab, Aljamain Sterling in a split decision title fight, and most recently got stopped early against Song Yadong due to an eye poke in February. Meanwhile, Payton Talbott's been on a tear, bouncing back from that January loss to Raoni Barcelos with a decision win over Felipe Lima in June. The kid's got nasty finishing instincts - remember that 19-second knockout of Yanis Ghemmouri at UFC 303? Absolutely brutal.
Here's the thing though - Cejudo's still got that championship experience that Talbott's never faced. When Triple C fought for the belt against Sterling, he landed 143 strikes and pushed the pace for five rounds. That Merab fight showed he can still hang with elite wrestlers, even if the judges didn't see it his way. Talbott's a switch-stance problem with serious power, but he's never been in deep water with someone who's held two belts. The technical matchup is fascinating.
Cejudo's Olympic wrestling base against Talbott's explosive striking creates real questions. Talbott went 100% on strikes in that Ghemmouri finish - perfect accuracy when it mattered. But Cejudo's the kind of guy who makes you uncomfortable for 15 minutes straight, mixing levels and grinding you down. Can the young gun keep Triple C off him, or does experience win out when things get tough?
If Talbott's gonna get it done, it'll be early before Cejudo's pressure and wrestling take over in the later rounds.

Payton Talbott finish map

Payton Talbott breakdown
Pace delta
+2.2 significant strikes/min
Payton Talbott averages 6.0 significant strikes per minute while Henry Cejudo sits at 3.8.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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