Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos

Nov 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

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Aaron Rosa

Record: 18-6-0

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Matt Lucas

Record: 15-3-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Aaron Rosa

Matt Lucas

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Aaron Rosa

Matt Lucas

Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Aaron Rosa

Decision (60%)

Losses (40%)

Matt Lucas

Losses (100%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense85%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ80%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy48%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Cardio & Endurance70%

Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Aaron Rosa

Matt Lucas

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From opening bell, Aaron Rosa can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Matt Lucas looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the — stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

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Aaron Rosa

Aaron Rosa finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

Decision (60%)

Losses (40%)

Aaron Rosa breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense85%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ80%

Aaron Rosa's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Matt Lucas must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Aaron Rosa brings the more polished entries (33%) while Matt Lucas relies on defensive frames (—).

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

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Matt Lucas

Matt Lucas finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

Losses (100%)

Matt Lucas breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy48%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Cardio & Endurance70%

Fight IQ80%

Matt Lucas's recent form

Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas Stats Comparison

Age

•

—

Height

6'4" (193 cm)

•

6'1" (185 cm)

Weight

205 lbs (93 kg)

•

205 lbs (93 kg)

Reach

77" (196 cm)

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—

Stance

Orthodox

•

—

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas AI Analysis

Pace delta

+2.8 significant strikes/min

Aaron Rosa averages 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Matt Lucas sits at 1.3.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Aaron Rosa and Matt Lucas, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Rosa vs Lucas odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Rosa vs Lucas

Aaron Rosa vs Matt Lucas is on the UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos card on Nov 12, 2011 at Anaheim, California, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Rosa vs Lucas: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.