Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson

Jun 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

agentmma.com

Stephen Thompson

Record: 17-9-1

agentmma.com

Rory MacDonald

Record: 19-4-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Stephen Thompson

Rory MacDonald

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Stephen Thompson

Rory MacDonald

Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Stephen Thompson

KO/TKO (35%)

Decision (35%)

Losses (31%)

Rory MacDonald

KO/TKO (25%)

Sub (8%)

Decision (42%)

Losses (24%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy46%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense63%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ70%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%

Grappling Efficiency52%

Takedown Defense88%

Cardio & Endurance77%

Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Stephen Thompson

Rory MacDonald

View Profile

From opening bell, Stephen Thompson can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Rory MacDonald looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

View Profile

Stephen Thompson

Stephen Thompson finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (35%)

Decision (35%)

Losses (31%)

Stephen Thompson breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy46%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense63%

Cardio & Endurance75%

Fight IQ70%

Stephen Thompson's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Rory MacDonald must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Rory MacDonald owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (47%) but must solve the 63% sprawl from Stephen Thompson.

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

View Profile

Rory MacDonald

Rory MacDonald finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (25%)

Sub (8%)

Decision (42%)

Losses (24%)

Rory MacDonald breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%

Grappling Efficiency52%

Takedown Defense88%

Cardio & Endurance77%

Fight IQ90%

Rory MacDonald's recent form

Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

6'0" (183 cm)

•

6'0" (183 cm)

Weight

170 lbs (77 kg)

•

170 lbs (77 kg)

Reach

75" (191 cm)

•

76" (193 cm)

Stance

Orthodox

•

Orthodox

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.4 significant strikes/min

Stephen Thompson averages 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Rory MacDonald sits at 3.8.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Stephen Thompson
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	1-4-0	12-9-1
Wins inside the distance	1 (100%)	6 (50%)
KO/TKO wins	1	6
Submission wins	0	0
Average fight time	14:27	14:31
Total strikes landed per min	6.82	5.30
Takedowns landed per 15 min	0.00	0.17
Control time per 15 min	0:24	0:55

Rory MacDonald
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	3-2-0	9-4-0
Wins inside the distance	1 (33%)	4 (44%)
KO/TKO wins	1	3
Submission wins	0	1
Average fight time	17:30	13:42
Total strikes landed per min	4.95	4.83
Takedowns landed per 15 min	0.48	1.25
Control time per 15 min	0:52	2:29

UFC bouts only, as of October 18, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Stephen Thompson 10/22, Rory MacDonald 9/13.

Stephen Thompson and Rory MacDonald: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

Opponent	Stephen Thompson	Rory MacDonald
Tyron Woodley	Loss Decision – Majority · Mar 2017Draw Decision – Majority · Nov 2016	Win Decision – Unanimous · Jun 2014
Jake Ellenberger	Win KO/TKO, R1 · Jul 2015	Win Decision – Unanimous · Jul 2013

Previous meetings

Stephen Thompson: Win Decision – Unanimous · UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Jun 2016

Stephen Thompson: last 5 UFC fights

LossGabriel BonfimDecision – Split· UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 2025
LossJoaquin BuckleyKO/TKO, R3· UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 2024
LossShavkat RakhmonovSubmission, R2· UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 2023
WinKevin HollandKO/TKO, R4· UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 2022
LossBelal MuhammadDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 2021

Rory MacDonald: last 5 UFC fights

LossStephen ThompsonDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Jun 2016
LossRobbie LawlerKO/TKO, R5· UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Jul 2015
WinTarec SaffiedineKO/TKO, R3· UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · Oct 2014
WinTyron WoodleyDecision – Unanimous· UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Jun 2014
WinDemian MaiaDecision – Unanimous· UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Feb 2014

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Stephen Thompson and Rory MacDonald, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald.

Premium analysis preview is ready.

Loading secure checkout…

Model score and full reasoning inside

Thompson vs MacDonald odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Thompson vs MacDonald

Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald is on the UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson card on Jun 18, 2016 at Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Thompson vs MacDonald: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.