UFC 328 sees rare occurrence of fighters losing despite 8+ takedowns in title bouts

At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost. Historically, UFC fighters who complete 5 or more takedowns in title bouts win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83% of the time. However, both Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira executed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but lost their fights. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time but was still finished. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that even elite wrestling provides only 80% win probability, and total mixed martial arts skill remains superior. Factors like weight cuts, injuries, travel, and overall health can dramatically shift those odds against wrestlers facing well-rounded strikers.