Technical Breakdown: Why Gaethje Defeated Topuria Where Holloway Could Not

A detailed frame-by-frame comparison of Topuria's fights with Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje shows that Topuria absorbed a similar number of significant head strikes through two rounds against both opponents, but Gaethje's power on every single punch — especially the jab — inflicted roughly twice the damage. Gaethje's deep, unpredictable slips neutralized Topuria's combination punching, while Topuria continued to absorb shots even when moving defensively rather than pressing forward, exposing weaknesses in his guard across all positions. Analysts note that Topuria's team underestimated Gaethje's precision on single shots and failed to develop an answer to his clinch uppercut, and that Topuria's reluctance to throw kicks left him unable to punish Gaethje's low head position. In a rematch, Topuria is considered the favourite, with his motivation to reclaim the title seen as a key factor against an older, now fully realized Gaethje.