A detailed frame-by-frame comparison of Topuria's fights with Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje shows that Topuria absorbed a similar number of significant head strikes through two rounds against both opponents, but Gaethje's power on every single punch — especially the jab — inflicted roughly twice the damage. Gaethje's deep, unpredictable slips neutralized Topuria's combination punching, while Topuria continued to absorb shots even when moving defensively rather than pressing forward, exposing weaknesses in his guard across all positions. Analysts note that Topuria's team underestimated Gaethje's precision on single shots and failed to develop an answer to his clinch uppercut, and that Topuria's reluctance to throw kicks left him unable to punish Gaethje's low head position. In a rematch, Topuria is considered the favourite, with his motivation to reclaim the title seen as a key factor against an older, now fully realized Gaethje.
A detailed technical analysis published this week breaks down the frame-by-frame differences between Ilia Topuria's performances against Max Holloway and Justin Gaethje, concluding that Gaethje's punching power and precision were the decisive variables that separated a successful title defense from Holloway's inability to finish the champion.
Topuria, a 29-year-old Spaniard fighting out of Climent Club, carries a 17-1-0 record and holds the number-two ranking at lightweight and the number-one pound-for-pound spot. He lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute at 48 percent accuracy and adds nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes to his offensive arsenal. The analysis notes that through two rounds against both Holloway and Gaethje, Topuria absorbed a comparable volume of significant head strikes — but the damage inflicted by Gaethje was roughly double, owing to the champion's exceptional power on single punches, including the jab.
Justin Gaethje, the 37-year-old lightweight champion from the United States, is now 28-5-0 and lands 6.48 significant strikes per minute at a notably sharp 58 percent accuracy, the highest figure among the three fighters examined. His deep, unpredictable head movement disrupted Topuria's combination punching throughout the fight, and his clinch uppercut went unanswered by Topuria's corner at any point. Analysts specifically fault Topuria's team for underestimating Gaethje's single-shot precision and point to Topuria's reluctance to throw kicks as a tactical failure against an opponent who kept his head position dangerously low.
Holloway, now 34 and ranked fourth at lightweight, posted a 27-9-0 record and leads all three fighters in volume at 7.2 significant strikes per minute, but his 69-inch reach and inability to replicate Gaethje's power meant Topuria could absorb his output without the same structural damage.
Why it matters
- Gaethje's 58 percent striking accuracy proved the critical edge over Topuria's guard across all positions
- Topuria's failure to use kicks left Gaethje's low head position unpunished throughout the fight
- Analysts regard Topuria as the favourite in a rematch, citing his motivation to reclaim the lightweight title as a significant factor against the now 37-year-old champion
