Умар НурмагомедовvsМарио Баутиста

From opening bell, Умар Нурмагомедов can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.1 significant strikes per minute while Марио Баутиста looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Switch stance angles.

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and a sharper blend of volume and takedown efficiency could flip the entire narrative. Марио Баутиста must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Умар Нурмагомедов brings the more polished entries (47%) while Марио Баутиста relies on defensive frames (54%).

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.