Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson

Sep 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

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Tony Ferguson

Record: 26-11-0

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Nate Diaz

Record: 22-13-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Tony Ferguson

Nate Diaz

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Tony Ferguson

Nate Diaz

Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Tony Ferguson

KO/TKO (15%)

Sub (29%)

Decision (29%)

Losses (27%)

Nate Diaz

KO/TKO (9%)

Sub (44%)

Decision (18%)

Losses (29%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy45%

Grappling Efficiency56%

Takedown Defense66%

Cardio & Endurance73%

Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy45%

Grappling Efficiency69%

Takedown Defense41%

Cardio & Endurance73%

Fight IQ70%

Last Opponents

Tony Ferguson

Nate Diaz

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From opening bell, Tony Ferguson can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 4.9 significant strikes per minute while Nate Diaz looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Southpaw stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

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Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (15%)

Sub (29%)

Decision (29%)

Losses (27%)

Tony Ferguson breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy45%

Grappling Efficiency56%

Takedown Defense66%

Cardio & Endurance73%

Fight IQ75%

Tony Ferguson's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Nate Diaz must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Tony Ferguson brings the more polished entries (35%) while Nate Diaz relies on defensive frames (41%).

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

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Streak:1

Nate Diaz

Nate Diaz finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (9%)

Sub (44%)

Decision (18%)

Losses (29%)

Nate Diaz breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy45%

Grappling Efficiency69%

Takedown Defense41%

Cardio & Endurance73%

Fight IQ70%

Nate Diaz's recent form

Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

5'11" (180 cm)

•

6'0" (183 cm)

Weight

170 lbs (77 kg)

•

170 lbs (77 kg)

Reach

76" (193 cm)

•

76" (193 cm)

Stance

Orthodox

•

Southpaw

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.3 significant strikes/min

Tony Ferguson averages 4.9 significant strikes per minute while Nate Diaz sits at 4.6.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Tony Ferguson
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	0-5-0	15-9-0
Wins inside the distance	—	11 (73%)
KO/TKO wins	0	5
Submission wins	0	6
Average fight time	11:21	11:19
Total strikes landed per min	4.62	6.11
Takedowns landed per 15 min	0.65	0.64
Control time per 15 min	0:05	0:32

Nate Diaz
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	2-3-0	16-11-0
Wins inside the distance	1 (50%)	12 (75%)
KO/TKO wins	0	2
Submission wins	1	10
Average fight time	19:34	12:30
Total strikes landed per min	6.15	6.72
Takedowns landed per 15 min	0.00	0.84
Control time per 15 min	0:41	1:52

UFC bouts only, as of October 18, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Tony Ferguson 13/24, Nate Diaz 19/27.

Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

Opponent	Tony Ferguson	Nate Diaz
Anthony Pettis	Win KO/TKO, R2 · Oct 2018	Win Decision – Unanimous · Aug 2019
Donald Cerrone	Win TKO – Doctor's Stoppage, R2 · Jun 2019	Win Decision – Unanimous · Dec 2011
Rafael Dos Anjos	Win Decision – Unanimous · Nov 2016	Loss Decision – Unanimous · Dec 2014
Michael Johnson	Loss Decision – Unanimous · May 2012	Win Decision – Unanimous · Dec 2015
Josh Thomson	Win Decision – Unanimous · Jul 2015	Loss KO/TKO, R2 · Apr 2013

Previous meetings

Tony Ferguson: Loss Submission, R4 · UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 2022

Tony Ferguson: last 5 UFC fights

LossMichael ChiesaSubmission, R1· UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 2024
LossPaddy PimblettDecision – Unanimous· UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 2023
LossKing GreenSubmission, R3· UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 2023
LossNate DiazSubmission, R4· UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 2022
LossMichael ChandlerKO/TKO, R2· UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 2022

Nate Diaz: last 5 UFC fights

WinTony FergusonSubmission, R4· UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Sep 2022
LossLeon EdwardsDecision – Unanimous· UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 2021
LossJorge MasvidalTKO – Doctor's Stoppage, R3· UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 2019
WinAnthony PettisDecision – Unanimous· UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 2019
LossConor McGregorDecision – Majority· UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · Aug 2016

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Ferguson vs Diaz odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Ferguson vs Diaz

Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz is on the UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson card on Sep 10, 2022 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Ferguson vs Diaz: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.