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UFC Record Breakdown
Volkov's riding some serious momentum right now. The Russian just took a split decision over Jailton Almeida back in October, landing 123 of 130 strikes at a crazy 95% clip. That win came after a tough split loss to Ciryl Gane in December 2024, so Drago's looking to string together wins and climb back into title talks. Cortes-Acosta, meanwhile, has been on an absolute tear with back to back first round knockouts. Salsa Boy starched Shamil Gaziev in just 82 seconds in November, then did the same to Ante Delija four minutes into round one.
If Cortes-Acosta's gonna land that big shot, it'll likely come early before Volkov establishes his range and starts picking him apart.
The Cuban American is making a statement in the heavyweight division. Here's what makes this interesting. Volkov's got that slick kickboxing game at 6'7", using his reach to pick guys apart from distance. He showed he can grapple too, stuffing all of Almeida's takedown attempts and even hitting 3 of 4 against Gane. Cortes-Acosta brings that heavy Cuban boxing, looking to close distance and land bombs.
His power is legit, but he struggled against Sergei Pavlovich back in August, losing a decision where he only landed 45 of 117 strikes. The big question is whether Waldo can get inside on Volkov's length before eating too many kicks and jabs. Drago's proven he can handle pressure and has slick submissions when fights hit the mat, like that ezekiel choke he locked up on Tai Tuivasa. But Cortes-Acosta's knockout streak has everyone wondering if he's got that one punch power to change everything.
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Alexander Volkov finish map
Alexander Volkov breakdown
Alexander Volkov's recent form
Volkov's riding some serious momentum right now. The Russian just took a split decision over Jailton Almeida back in October, landing 123 of 130 strikes at a crazy 95% clip. That win came after a tough split loss to Ciryl Gane in December 2024, so Drago's looking to string together wins and climb back into title talks. Cortes-Acosta, meanwhile, has been on an absolute tear with back to back first round knockouts. Salsa Boy starched Shamil Gaziev in just 82 seconds in November, then did the same to Ante Delija four minutes into round one.
If Cortes-Acosta's gonna land that big shot, it'll likely come early before Volkov establishes his range and starts picking him apart.
The Cuban American is making a statement in the heavyweight division. Here's what makes this interesting. Volkov's got that slick kickboxing game at 6'7", using his reach to pick guys apart from distance. He showed he can grapple too, stuffing all of Almeida's takedown attempts and even hitting 3 of 4 against Gane. Cortes-Acosta brings that heavy Cuban boxing, looking to close distance and land bombs.
His power is legit, but he struggled against Sergei Pavlovich back in August, losing a decision where he only landed 45 of 117 strikes. The big question is whether Waldo can get inside on Volkov's length before eating too many kicks and jabs. Drago's proven he can handle pressure and has slick submissions when fights hit the mat, like that ezekiel choke he locked up on Tai Tuivasa. But Cortes-Acosta's knockout streak has everyone wondering if he's got that one punch power to change everything.
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Unlock full analysisTom Aspinall finish map
Tom Aspinall breakdown
Tom Aspinall's recent form
Pace delta
+2.8 significant strikes/min
Tom Aspinall averages 7.6 significant strikes per minute while Alexander Volkov sits at 4.8.
AI confidence
80%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
