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UFC Record Breakdown
The Baltic Gladiator is riding some serious momentum into this one. Bukauskas has been on a tear lately, finishing Rafael Cerqueira in just over two minutes back in Seattle, then submitting Marcin Prachnio with a nasty arm triangle in Manchester. The Lithuanian switch hitter has found his groove in the UFC's light heavyweight division, mixing slick striking with opportunistic grappling. That elbow finish of Paul Craig in Paris last September showed he can end fights from anywhere. Bellato brings a different kind of energy to this scrap.
This one heats up early because both guys love to press forward and neither has shown much interest in playing it safe.
The Brazilian earned his UFC contract with violent finishes, and he showed that power again when he slept Luke Fernandez with ground and pound in just under three minutes this past March. But here's the thing, Trator has had a weird run since then. That no contest against Paul Craig in Atlanta was bizarre (illegal upkick, what a mess), and then he dropped a decision to Navajo Stirling in Perth. That majority draw with Jimmy Crute in Sydney showed he can hang in tough fights, but fans are still trying to figure out which version of Bellato shows up. This matchup is all about who can impose their game first.
Bukauskas has that switch stance trickiness and he's comfortable wherever the fight goes. Bellato is more of a straight ahead brawler who wants to get you down and finish you with ground strikes. Both guys have shown they can crack, and neither one is shy about hunting for the finish.
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Modestas Bukauskas breakdown
Modestas Bukauskas's recent form
The Baltic Gladiator is riding some serious momentum into this one. Bukauskas has been on a tear lately, finishing Rafael Cerqueira in just over two minutes back in Seattle, then submitting Marcin Prachnio with a nasty arm triangle in Manchester. The Lithuanian switch hitter has found his groove in the UFC's light heavyweight division, mixing slick striking with opportunistic grappling. That elbow finish of Paul Craig in Paris last September showed he can end fights from anywhere. Bellato brings a different kind of energy to this scrap.
This one heats up early because both guys love to press forward and neither has shown much interest in playing it safe.
The Brazilian earned his UFC contract with violent finishes, and he showed that power again when he slept Luke Fernandez with ground and pound in just under three minutes this past March. But here's the thing, Trator has had a weird run since then. That no contest against Paul Craig in Atlanta was bizarre (illegal upkick, what a mess), and then he dropped a decision to Navajo Stirling in Perth. That majority draw with Jimmy Crute in Sydney showed he can hang in tough fights, but fans are still trying to figure out which version of Bellato shows up. This matchup is all about who can impose their game first.
Bukauskas has that switch stance trickiness and he's comfortable wherever the fight goes. Bellato is more of a straight ahead brawler who wants to get you down and finish you with ground strikes. Both guys have shown they can crack, and neither one is shy about hunting for the finish.
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Rodolfo Bellato finish map
Rodolfo Bellato breakdown
Rodolfo Bellato's recent form
Pace delta
+1.9 significant strikes/min
Rodolfo Bellato averages 5.1 significant strikes per minute while Modestas Bukauskas sits at 3.2.
AI confidence
87%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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Modestas Bukauskas vs Rodolfo Bellato odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
