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UFC Fight Night: Qatar
Nov 21, 2026• In 14 daysDoha, Qatar
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Asu Almabayev 2.3 SLpM, Kyoji Horiguchi 3.6 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Asu Almabayev 50%, Kyoji Horiguchi 47%
  • Damage Avoidance: Asu Almabayev 2.0 abs/min, Kyoji Horiguchi 2.1 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Asu Almabayev 42%, Kyoji Horiguchi 40%
  • Takedown Defense: Asu Almabayev 44%, Kyoji Horiguchi 61%
  • Submission Threat: Asu Almabayev 1.5 per 15m, Kyoji Horiguchi 0.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Asu Almabayev
Kyoji Horiguchi

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Asu Almabayev
7-1UFC Record
Sub (38%)
Decision (50%)
Losses (13%)
Kyoji Horiguchi
9-2UFC Record
KO/TKO (18%)
Sub (9%)
Decision (55%)
Losses (18%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy50%
Takedown Accuracy42%
Takedown Defense44%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%
Takedown Accuracy40%
Takedown Defense61%

Last Opponents

Asu Almabayev
Kyoji Horiguchi

Kyoji Horiguchi and Asu Almabayev share an uncomfortable reference point: Manel Kape stopped both men in round 3. Horiguchi was finished by punches on the ground, while Almabayev was stopped by punches at distance. That common opponent gives this meeting some bite, but those different endings cannot tell us who controls the exchanges when these two meet. The timing matters here, because Horiguchi's loss followed a unanimous decision win over Amir Albazi, leaving him looking for a response.

Key Storylines
  • Both suffered against Kape, but those losses came in different positions.
  • Almabayev brings a winning run while Horiguchi looks to bounce back.
  • Horiguchi can threaten submissions too, so position matters after every takedown.
Finishing Window

Round 3 looks like the likeliest turning point, when repeated battles for position could make a rushed escape harder to correct.

Almabayev responded to his defeat by beating Jose Ochoa by unanimous decision, submitting Alex Perez with a clinch guillotine and catching Charles Johnson in a Suloev stretch from back control. That last finish is a nasty reminder that giving him your back creates more than one problem. Horiguchi has his own answer to anyone treating him as harmless on the mat: he submitted Tagir Ulanbekov with a rear naked choke in Doha. So Almabayev's job is not simply to get close, but to secure position before chasing the next opening.

Horiguchi needs space to strike and clean exits, because a rushed escape can hand a grappler another grip. The real question is whether Almabayev can keep those wrestling exchanges connected or Horiguchi can repeatedly reset the fight at distance. Their submission wins on the same Doha card make that battle over position especially interesting.

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi Stats Comparison

Age
32
•
36
Height
5'4" (163 cm)
•
5'4" (163 cm)
Weight
125 lbs (57 kg)
•
125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach
65" (165 cm)
•
63" (160 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.3 significant strikes/min

Kyoji Horiguchi averages 3.6 significant strikes per minute while Asu Almabayev sits at 2.3.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Asu Almabayev
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record4-1-07-1-0
Wins inside the distance2 (50%)3 (43%)
KO/TKO wins00
Submission wins23
Average fight time13:1413:03
Total strikes landed per min4.404.84
Takedowns landed per 15 min3.634.74
Control time per 15 min5:367:20
Kyoji Horiguchi
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record4-1-09-2-0
Wins inside the distance1 (25%)3 (33%)
KO/TKO wins02
Submission wins11
Average fight time14:0013:53
Total strikes landed per min6.715.73
Takedowns landed per 15 min2.571.67
Control time per 15 min4:293:16

UFC bouts only, as of November 7, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Asu Almabayev 8/8, Kyoji Horiguchi 11/11.

Asu Almabayev and Kyoji Horiguchi: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

OpponentAsu AlmabayevKyoji Horiguchi
Manel KapeLoss KO/TKO, R3 · Mar 2025Loss KO/TKO, R3 · Jun 2026

Asu Almabayev: last 5 UFC fights

  1. WinCharles JohnsonSubmission, R3· UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 2026
  2. WinAlex PerezSubmission, R3· UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 2025
  3. WinJose OchoaDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Jul 2025
  4. LossManel KapeKO/TKO, R3· UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Mar 2025
  5. WinMatheus NicolauDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 2024

Kyoji Horiguchi: last 5 UFC fights

  1. LossManel KapeKO/TKO, R3· UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Jun 2026
  2. WinAmir AlbaziDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 2026
  3. WinTagir UlanbekovSubmission, R3· UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 2025
  4. WinAli BagautinovDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · Nov 2016
  5. WinNeil SeeryDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · May 2016

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Asu Almabayev and Kyoji Horiguchi, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Almabayev vs Horiguchi odds

Live Polymarket odds for Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Almabayev vs Horiguchi

Asu Almabayev vs Kyoji Horiguchi is on the UFC Fight Night: Qatar card on Nov 21, 2026 at Doha, Qatar. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Almabayev vs Horiguchi: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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