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UFC Freedom 250
Jun 14, 2026Washington, DC, USA
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Fighter Performance Comparison

POWERED BY AGENTMMA.COM

Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Ilia Topuria 4.8 SLpM, Justin Gaethje 6.5 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Ilia Topuria 48%, Justin Gaethje 58%
  • Damage Avoidance: Ilia Topuria 3.8 abs/min, Justin Gaethje 7.0 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Ilia Topuria 61%, Justin Gaethje 40%
  • Takedown Defense: Ilia Topuria 93%, Justin Gaethje 74%
  • Submission Threat: Ilia Topuria 1.1 per 15m, Justin Gaethje —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Ilia Topuria
9-1UFC Record
KO/TKO (60%)
Sub (10%)
Decision (20%)
Losses (10%)
Justin Gaethje
11-5UFC Record
KO/TKO (44%)
Decision (25%)
Losses (31%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy48%
Takedown Accuracy61%
Takedown Defense93%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy58%
Takedown Accuracy40%
Takedown Defense74%

Last Opponents

Ilia Topuria
Justin Gaethje

Fans have a real reason to want Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje back in there: how would Topuria handle another dose of that pressure? Topuria suffered his first defeat when his corner stopped the fight at the end of round 4. A rematch is only hypothetical, with nothing booked, but how he would respond is a serious hook. Here's the thing: Topuria stopped Charles Oliveira in round 1 and Max Holloway in round 3 before running into Gaethje.

Key Storylines
  • Topuria's first defeat gives a hypothetical rematch a sharp personal edge.
  • Gaethje's relentless pace meets Topuria's accuracy, with little room for mistakes.
  • Topuria's wrestling could change the rhythm when the punching gets messy.
Finishing Window

The fight would be likeliest to break open in rounds 2 and 3, when repeated exchanges start testing whether either man can keep his timing under pressure.

Gaethje reached that meeting after unanimous decision wins over Paddy Pimblett and Rafael Fiziev. On paper, you get sharp punching against a higher striking pace, with danger every time either man stays close. Both fight orthodox, so who gets set to punch and who has to reset would matter immediately. Topuria's more active takedown game gives him another way to interrupt the exchanges, but those attempts would need timing if he wants to avoid burning energy.

Gaethje would have to keep the pressure coming without letting his willingness to trade make every entry expensive. Gaethje holds the lightweight belt, which gives this idea an extra sting for Topuria. If they ever run it back, the question is what Topuria changes and whether Gaethje can keep forcing that punishing pace as the rounds pile up.

1 fight between them

  1. UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026

    Justin Gaethje defeated Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO at 5:00 of round 4 at UFC Freedom 250 on June 14, 2026 in Washington, DC, USA.

    KO/TKOR4 · 5:00

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Stats Comparison

Age
29
•
37
Height
5'7" (170 cm)
•
5'11" (180 cm)
Weight
155 lbs (70 kg)
•
155 lbs (70 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
•
70" (178 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.7 significant strikes/min

Justin Gaethje averages 6.5 significant strikes per minute while Ilia Topuria sits at 4.8.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Ilia Topuria
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record4-1-09-1-0
Wins inside the distance3 (75%)7 (78%)
KO/TKO wins36
Submission wins01
Average fight time13:3110:26
Total strikes landed per min6.225.59
Takedowns landed per 15 min1.331.73
Control time per 15 min1:463:04
Justin Gaethje
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record4-1-011-5-0
Wins inside the distance2 (50%)7 (64%)
KO/TKO wins27
Submission wins00
Average fight time18:1212:38
Total strikes landed per min6.176.96
Takedowns landed per 15 min0.490.30
Control time per 15 min1:290:59

UFC bouts only, as of November 8, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Ilia Topuria 10/10, Justin Gaethje 16/16.

Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

OpponentIlia TopuriaJustin Gaethje
Charles OliveiraWin KO/TKO, R1 · Jun 2025Loss Submission, R1 · May 2022
Max HollowayWin KO/TKO, R3 · Oct 2024Loss KO/TKO, R5 · Apr 2024

Previous meetings

  • Ilia Topuria: Loss KO/TKO, R4 · UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 2026

Ilia Topuria: last 5 UFC fights

  1. LossJustin GaethjeKO/TKO, R4· UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 2026
  2. WinCharles OliveiraKO/TKO, R1· UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 2025
  3. WinMax HollowayKO/TKO, R3· UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 2024
  4. WinAlexander VolkanovskiKO/TKO, R2· UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 2024
  5. WinJosh EmmettDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 2023

Justin Gaethje: last 5 UFC fights

  1. WinIlia TopuriaKO/TKO, R4· UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 2026
  2. WinPaddy PimblettDecision – Unanimous· UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 2026
  3. WinRafael FizievDecision – Unanimous· UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 2025
  4. LossMax HollowayKO/TKO, R5· UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 2024
  5. WinDustin PoirierKO/TKO, R2· UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Jul 2023

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Ilia Topuria and Justin Gaethje, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Topuria vs Gaethje odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Topuria vs Gaethje

Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje is on the UFC Freedom 250 card on Jun 14, 2026 at Washington, DC, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Topuria vs Gaethje: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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