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UFC Record Breakdown
This bantamweight scrap has serious grappling intrigue written all over it. Bia Mesquita is a straight up BJJ wizard who just choked out Irina Alekseeva with a rear naked choke back in October. That's what she does, she finds necks and makes people tap. Montse Rendon, fighting out of Mexico, is coming off a split decision win over Alice Pereira in September where she threw 185 strikes and showed she's willing to get messy in there. Here's the thing though.
If Bia gets top position in round two or three, that's when the squeeze comes and things get dangerous.
Rendon's got a mixed bag when it comes to results. She beat Tamires Vidal by split decision back in 2023, but then dropped a unanimous decision to Daria Zhelezniakova in 2024. The striking volume is there, she's active and aggressive, but landing only 32% against Pereira shows she's swinging more than connecting. Meanwhile, Bia's last fight was all about control, she had nearly five minutes of cage time and hit 67% of her takedowns. The matchup is pretty clear.
Bia wants this on the ground where her world class jiu jitsu takes over. Rendon needs to keep it standing and make Bia work through that crazy striking volume. If Mesquita can get her hands locked, it could be a long night for the Mexican fighter. Both are orthodox, both are hungry, and someone's getting their hand raised in Vegas. The betting lines reflect the grappling advantage, with Mesquita coming in as a heavy favorite at minus 550 while Rendon sits at plus 400.
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Montse Rendon finish map
Montse Rendon breakdown
Montse Rendon's recent form
This bantamweight scrap has serious grappling intrigue written all over it. Bia Mesquita is a straight up BJJ wizard who just choked out Irina Alekseeva with a rear naked choke back in October. That's what she does, she finds necks and makes people tap. Montse Rendon, fighting out of Mexico, is coming off a split decision win over Alice Pereira in September where she threw 185 strikes and showed she's willing to get messy in there. Here's the thing though.
If Bia gets top position in round two or three, that's when the squeeze comes and things get dangerous.
Rendon's got a mixed bag when it comes to results. She beat Tamires Vidal by split decision back in 2023, but then dropped a unanimous decision to Daria Zhelezniakova in 2024. The striking volume is there, she's active and aggressive, but landing only 32% against Pereira shows she's swinging more than connecting. Meanwhile, Bia's last fight was all about control, she had nearly five minutes of cage time and hit 67% of her takedowns. The matchup is pretty clear.
Bia wants this on the ground where her world class jiu jitsu takes over. Rendon needs to keep it standing and make Bia work through that crazy striking volume. If Mesquita can get her hands locked, it could be a long night for the Mexican fighter. Both are orthodox, both are hungry, and someone's getting their hand raised in Vegas. The betting lines reflect the grappling advantage, with Mesquita coming in as a heavy favorite at minus 550 while Rendon sits at plus 400.
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Bia Mesquita finish map
Bia Mesquita breakdown
Bia Mesquita's recent form
Pace delta
+1.9 significant strikes/min
Bia Mesquita averages 5.0 significant strikes per minute while Montse Rendon sits at 3.1.
AI confidence
85%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Montse Rendon vs Bia Mesquita odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
