AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Jonathan Micallef just pulled off a massive upset at UFC 312 in Sydney, outpointing Kevin Jousset in front of his home crowd. The Captain landed 89 strikes over three rounds and got the nod from all three judges. Now he's looking to keep that momentum rolling. Oban Elliott, though, is coming off a tough night in Baku where Seokhyeon Ko took him to school for three rounds. The Welsh Gangster only landed 19 strikes that night and couldn't get anything going.
But here's the thing, before that loss Elliott was on fire. He starched Bassil Hafez with a punch in round three at UFC 309, then went back to back with decision wins over Preston Parsons and Val Woodburn. That Woodburn fight was crazy, Elliott landed 136 strikes and controlled over nine minutes of cage time. This is a classic striker versus striker battle with both guys coming from opposite directions. Micallef's riding high off that home country win, throwing volume and staying busy.
Elliott's got the power to change everything in a second, like he showed against Hafez. The southpaw versus orthodox matchup adds another wrinkle. Micallef throws a ton of volume, he attempted 197 strikes against Jousset. Elliott's more patient, picking his shots and hunting for that one clean connection. For Elliott, this is a bounce back fight to prove that loss in Baku was just a bad night.
UFC Record Breakdown
If Elliott's going to land that fight changing shot, it'll come in round two or three when Micallef's volume starts piling up.

Oban Elliott finish map

Oban Elliott breakdown
Jonathan Micallef just pulled off a massive upset at UFC 312 in Sydney, outpointing Kevin Jousset in front of his home crowd. The Captain landed 89 strikes over three rounds and got the nod from all three judges. Now he's looking to keep that momentum rolling. Oban Elliott, though, is coming off a tough night in Baku where Seokhyeon Ko took him to school for three rounds. The Welsh Gangster only landed 19 strikes that night and couldn't get anything going.
But here's the thing, before that loss Elliott was on fire. He starched Bassil Hafez with a punch in round three at UFC 309, then went back to back with decision wins over Preston Parsons and Val Woodburn. That Woodburn fight was crazy, Elliott landed 136 strikes and controlled over nine minutes of cage time. This is a classic striker versus striker battle with both guys coming from opposite directions. Micallef's riding high off that home country win, throwing volume and staying busy.
Elliott's got the power to change everything in a second, like he showed against Hafez. The southpaw versus orthodox matchup adds another wrinkle. Micallef throws a ton of volume, he attempted 197 strikes against Jousset. Elliott's more patient, picking his shots and hunting for that one clean connection. For Elliott, this is a bounce back fight to prove that loss in Baku was just a bad night.
If Elliott's going to land that fight changing shot, it'll come in round two or three when Micallef's volume starts piling up.

Jonathan Micallef finish map

Jonathan Micallef breakdown
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Jonathan Micallef averages 4.8 significant strikes per minute while Oban Elliott sits at 4.3.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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