AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Two flyweights trying to claw back into title contention meet in Vegas, and both guys need this one badly. Alex Perez is coming off back to back losses, including that nasty guillotine from Asu Almabayev back in November. Before that, he had to pull out against Tatsuro Taira with a brutal leg injury. Charles Johnson, meanwhile, is riding a nice wave after knocking out Lone'er Kavanagh in China this past August, landing that perfect punch at distance late in round two. Perez is the former title challenger who's been in there with the best, but he's in a tough spot right now.
That win over Matheus Nicolau in April 2024 showed he still has knockout power, dropping him with a punch in the second round. Johnson has quietly put together a solid run, beating Sumudaerji by decision and finishing Joshua Van in Denver. The dude can strike and he's got that switch stance look that keeps guys guessing. Here's the thing about this matchup. Perez has the wrestling pedigree and power, but those submission losses to Pantoja and Almabayev show he can get caught.
Johnson's been more of a volume striker, throwing tons of shots and mixing in just enough grappling to keep it interesting. He landed 84 strikes against Sumudaerji and 88 against Hadley, just peppering guys for three rounds. Both guys are ranked in that 11 to 13 range, so whoever wins jumps right back into the conversation. Perez needs to prove he's still that dangerous contender, while Johnson wants to show he belongs with the division's elite.
UFC Record Breakdown
If Perez is gonna get it done, expect fireworks in round two when his power shows up and Johnson's pace starts wearing on him.

Charles Johnson finish map

Charles Johnson breakdown
Two flyweights trying to claw back into title contention meet in Vegas, and both guys need this one badly. Alex Perez is coming off back to back losses, including that nasty guillotine from Asu Almabayev back in November. Before that, he had to pull out against Tatsuro Taira with a brutal leg injury. Charles Johnson, meanwhile, is riding a nice wave after knocking out Lone'er Kavanagh in China this past August, landing that perfect punch at distance late in round two. Perez is the former title challenger who's been in there with the best, but he's in a tough spot right now.
That win over Matheus Nicolau in April 2024 showed he still has knockout power, dropping him with a punch in the second round. Johnson has quietly put together a solid run, beating Sumudaerji by decision and finishing Joshua Van in Denver. The dude can strike and he's got that switch stance look that keeps guys guessing. Here's the thing about this matchup. Perez has the wrestling pedigree and power, but those submission losses to Pantoja and Almabayev show he can get caught.
Johnson's been more of a volume striker, throwing tons of shots and mixing in just enough grappling to keep it interesting. He landed 84 strikes against Sumudaerji and 88 against Hadley, just peppering guys for three rounds. Both guys are ranked in that 11 to 13 range, so whoever wins jumps right back into the conversation. Perez needs to prove he's still that dangerous contender, while Johnson wants to show he belongs with the division's elite.
If Perez is gonna get it done, expect fireworks in round two when his power shows up and Johnson's pace starts wearing on him.

Alex Perez finish map

Alex Perez breakdown
Pace delta
+0.6 significant strikes/min
Charles Johnson averages 4.7 significant strikes per minute while Alex Perez sits at 4.2.
AI confidence
89%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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