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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Brazil's Alessandro Costa is looking to bounce back after a rough night in San Antonio last September, where Alden Coria caught him with punches in the third round. Before that? Costa was on fire, finishing Kevin Borjas with nasty ground and pound from mount at UFC 301 in Rio. The dude's got real finishing power when he gets on top, and that elbow TKO over Jimmy Flick showed he's dangerous from half guard too. Costa reps Lobo Gym MMA and stands 5'5" in the flyweight division.
If Costa gets top position in rounds two or three, that's when the elbows start flying and fights get stopped.
Stewart Nicoll is coming in cold with back to back losses. Jesus Aguilar caught him in a guillotine just 2:39 into their fight at UFC 305 in Perth, and then Lucas Rocha outworked him over three rounds last October in Rio. That's two straight trips to Brazil that didn't go his way, and now he's heading to Vegas trying to stop the bleeding. This matchup comes down to where the fight happens. Costa's a problem when he gets you down, landing 60 strikes and controlling position against Borjas before finishing him.
Nicoll struggled with his takedown defense against Rocha, getting stuffed on 18 of 20 attempts while eating shots. If Costa can get this to the mat, he's got the tools to finish. But Nicoll needs to keep it standing and make Costa pay at range, something he couldn't do in his last two. Costa's fighting at the APEX where he's had success before. Nicoll desperately needs a win to stay relevant in the flyweight picture.
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Stewart Nicoll breakdown
Stewart Nicoll's recent form
Brazil's Alessandro Costa is looking to bounce back after a rough night in San Antonio last September, where Alden Coria caught him with punches in the third round. Before that? Costa was on fire, finishing Kevin Borjas with nasty ground and pound from mount at UFC 301 in Rio. The dude's got real finishing power when he gets on top, and that elbow TKO over Jimmy Flick showed he's dangerous from half guard too. Costa reps Lobo Gym MMA and stands 5'5" in the flyweight division.
If Costa gets top position in rounds two or three, that's when the elbows start flying and fights get stopped.
Stewart Nicoll is coming in cold with back to back losses. Jesus Aguilar caught him in a guillotine just 2:39 into their fight at UFC 305 in Perth, and then Lucas Rocha outworked him over three rounds last October in Rio. That's two straight trips to Brazil that didn't go his way, and now he's heading to Vegas trying to stop the bleeding. This matchup comes down to where the fight happens. Costa's a problem when he gets you down, landing 60 strikes and controlling position against Borjas before finishing him.
Nicoll struggled with his takedown defense against Rocha, getting stuffed on 18 of 20 attempts while eating shots. If Costa can get this to the mat, he's got the tools to finish. But Nicoll needs to keep it standing and make Costa pay at range, something he couldn't do in his last two. Costa's fighting at the APEX where he's had success before. Nicoll desperately needs a win to stay relevant in the flyweight picture.
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Alessandro Costa breakdown
Alessandro Costa's recent form
Pace delta
+0.6 significant strikes/min
Alessandro Costa averages 3.6 significant strikes per minute while Stewart Nicoll sits at 3.0.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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