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UFC Record Breakdown
Two Brazilian strawweights looking to climb back into contention are throwing down, and this one's got serious grappling fireworks written all over it. Ketlen "Esquentadinha" Souza just bounced back with a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil in February after dropping back to back split decisions to Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez. That win snapped a rough stretch and showed she's still got plenty left in the tank. Meanwhile, Ariane "Sorriso" Carnelossi is coming off a tough submission loss to Talita Alencar last November, getting caught in a rear naked choke late in the third round after controlling decent stretches of that fight.
If this hits the ground in the second or third round, someone's neck is in serious danger.
Here's the thing, both these women are dangerous on the mat. Souza reminded everyone at UFC 306 when she snatched that slick rear naked choke on Yazmin Jauregui in under three minutes. Carnelossi's got her own submission game too, finishing Istela Nunes with a rear naked choke back in 2021 and doing the same to Na Liang at UFC 261. When you've got two orthodox strikers from Brazil who both love hunting necks, you know someone's gonna be scrambling for their life at some point.
The big question is whether Souza can keep her momentum rolling or if Carnelossi finds a way to get back in the win column. Souza's been more active lately and looked sharp against Brasil, landing 86 strikes in that Rodriguez fight even though she came up short on the cards. Carnelossi's been out of the octagon longer and needs this one badly to stay relevant in the division.
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Ketlen Souza finish map
Ketlen Souza breakdown
Ketlen Souza's recent form
Two Brazilian strawweights looking to climb back into contention are throwing down, and this one's got serious grappling fireworks written all over it. Ketlen "Esquentadinha" Souza just bounced back with a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil in February after dropping back to back split decisions to Angela Hill and Piera Rodriguez. That win snapped a rough stretch and showed she's still got plenty left in the tank. Meanwhile, Ariane "Sorriso" Carnelossi is coming off a tough submission loss to Talita Alencar last November, getting caught in a rear naked choke late in the third round after controlling decent stretches of that fight.
If this hits the ground in the second or third round, someone's neck is in serious danger.
Here's the thing, both these women are dangerous on the mat. Souza reminded everyone at UFC 306 when she snatched that slick rear naked choke on Yazmin Jauregui in under three minutes. Carnelossi's got her own submission game too, finishing Istela Nunes with a rear naked choke back in 2021 and doing the same to Na Liang at UFC 261. When you've got two orthodox strikers from Brazil who both love hunting necks, you know someone's gonna be scrambling for their life at some point.
The big question is whether Souza can keep her momentum rolling or if Carnelossi finds a way to get back in the win column. Souza's been more active lately and looked sharp against Brasil, landing 86 strikes in that Rodriguez fight even though she came up short on the cards. Carnelossi's been out of the octagon longer and needs this one badly to stay relevant in the division.
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Unlock full analysisAriane Carnelossi finish map
Ariane Carnelossi breakdown
Ariane Carnelossi's recent form
Pace delta
+1.4 significant strikes/min
Ketlen Souza averages 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Ariane Carnelossi sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
