Alessandro CostavsMatt Schnell

He snapped a rough skid with a decision win over Jimmy Flick in April 2025, but then got caught in a guillotine by Joseph Morales just last November. That's three submission losses in his last five, and it's a pattern you can't ignore. Before the Flick win, Cody Durden and Steve Erceg both finished him, Erceg with that second round punch that put him out cold. Here's the thing though, Schnell can still bang when he's on. That 75% striking accuracy against Flick showed he's still got the skills, and he controlled over three minutes of that fight.

Costa's aggressive style plays right into the kind of chaos Schnell thrives in. Both guys are Orthodox, both love to throw down, and neither's known for playing it safe. Costa's takedown defense looked solid against Erceg, stuffing five of six attempts. The real question is whether Schnell's chin holds up or if Costa's pressure breaks him like we've seen happen before. This catchweight setup adds another wrinkle, nobody cutting hard, both guys coming in ready to scrap from the opening bell.