UFC 333
Oct 24, 2026In 65 daysAbu-Dhabi
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Grant Dawson 3.2 SLpM, Nurullo Aliev 2.7 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Grant Dawson 52%, Nurullo Aliev 44%
  • Damage Avoidance: Grant Dawson 2.1 abs/min, Nurullo Aliev 1.6 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Grant Dawson 39%, Nurullo Aliev 43%
  • Takedown Defense: Grant Dawson 57%, Nurullo Aliev 80%
  • Submission Threat: Grant Dawson 1.1 per 15m, Nurullo Aliev 0.3 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Grant Dawson
13-2UFC Record
KO/TKO (15%)
Sub (36%)
Decision (36%)
Losses (13%)
Nurullo Aliev
4-0UFC Record
Decision (100%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy52%
Grappling Efficiency60%
Takedown Defense57%
Cardio & Endurance79%
Fight IQ90%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy44%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense80%
Cardio & Endurance85%
Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson is looking to bounce back after getting absolutely starched by Manuel Torres back in December. That first round knockout was brutal, the kind that makes you wonder how a guy responds. But here's the thing, Dawson came back in May and showed he's still got it, submitting Mateusz Rebecki with a rear naked choke in the third round. That's the KGD everyone knows, grinding you down and finding the finish. Now he's got Nurullo Aliev, the undefeated Tajik Eagle who's quietly put together a perfect UFC record. Aliev is no joke.

Key Storylines
  • Dawson rebounding from brutal knockout loss to Torres
  • Aliev's undefeated UFC run meets first ranked test
  • Battle of grinders who both love wrestling and control
Finishing Window

If this fight hits the third round, that's when Dawson's pressure and submission threats really start breaking guys down.

He's 4 and 0 in the UFC, just beat Mike Davis in July with eight takedowns and over 12 minutes of control time. Before that, he outworked Joe Solecki, the same guy Dawson beat back in 2024. The dude's a grinder who knows how to win rounds, landing 76% of his strikes against Davis while smothering him on the mat. This is a huge step up though, facing a ranked guy like Dawson who's been in deep water before. The matchup is fascinating because both guys love to wrestle and control the fight. Dawson's got that American Top Team pedigree and can switch stances to keep you guessing.

When he's on, like that Diego Ferreira fight where he landed 195 strikes and hit 55% of his takedowns, he's suffocating. Aliev's wrestling is legit too, but can he handle Dawson's submission game? That's the question everyone's asking. One guy's trying to prove the Torres loss was a fluke, the other's trying to crack the rankings for the first time.

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Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Stats Comparison

Age
32
25
Height
5'10" (178 cm)
5'10" (178 cm)
Weight
155 lbs (70 kg)
155 lbs (70 kg)
Reach
72" (183 cm)
72" (183 cm)
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.5 significant strikes/min

Grant Dawson averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute while Nurullo Aliev sits at 2.7.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Dawson vs Aliev odds

Live Polymarket odds for Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Dawson vs Aliev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev is on the UFC 333 card on Oct 24, 2026 at Abu-Dhabi. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Dawson vs Aliev: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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