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UFC 333
Oct 24, 2026• In 19 daysAbu-Dhabi
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Grant Dawson 3.2 SLpM, Nurullo Aliev 2.7 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Grant Dawson 52%, Nurullo Aliev 44%
  • Damage Avoidance: Grant Dawson 2.1 abs/min, Nurullo Aliev 1.6 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Grant Dawson 39%, Nurullo Aliev 43%
  • Takedown Defense: Grant Dawson 57%, Nurullo Aliev 80%
  • Submission Threat: Grant Dawson 1.1 per 15m, Nurullo Aliev 0.3 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Grant Dawson
13-2UFC Record
KO/TKO (15%)
Sub (36%)
Decision (36%)
Losses (13%)
Nurullo Aliev
4-0UFC Record
Decision (100%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy52%
Grappling Efficiency60%
Takedown Defense57%
Cardio & Endurance79%
Fight IQ90%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy44%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense80%
Cardio & Endurance85%
Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Grant Dawson
Nurullo Aliev

Grant Dawson against Nurullo Aliev is the kind of fight that makes you look past the bigger names on the card. Dawson choked out Mateusz Rebecki after his knockout loss to Manuel Torres, while Aliev is still unbeaten and coming off a decision over Mike Davis. You can already feel how much the first hard scramble might matter. Dawson has shown several ways to make a fight uncomfortable: he finished Rafa Garcia with punches from back control, beat Diego Ferreira and Joe Solecki by decision, then caught Rebecki with a rear naked choke late in round 3.

Key Storylines
  • Dawson answered the Torres knockout with a late choke of Rebecki
  • Aliev kept his unbeaten run intact with a decision over Davis
  • Matching height and reach put every grappling exchange under the microscope
Finishing Window

The fight could break open late in round 2, when defended takedowns and repeated scrambles make each reset harder.

Aliev has followed a steadier path, going the distance with Rafael Alves, Solecki, Shem Rock and Davis and getting his hand raised each time. Their shared win over Solecki is fun to compare, but it cannot tell us who controls this fight. Here's the thing: both men have the same listed height and reach, so neither can rely on a size advantage. Dawson switches stances and has shown what he can do when he reaches the back; Aliev fights orthodox and brings takedowns of his own.

If an entry gets stopped, watch how quickly each man can free his hands, regain balance and start again. Aliev has yet to lose, and Dawson has shown he can recover from a rough night. The question is what happens when both want the same space and neither wants to give it up.

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Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev Stats Comparison

Age
32
•
25
Height
5'10" (178 cm)
•
5'10" (178 cm)
Weight
155 lbs (70 kg)
•
155 lbs (70 kg)
Reach
72" (183 cm)
•
72" (183 cm)
Stance
Switch
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.5 significant strikes/min

Grant Dawson averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute while Nurullo Aliev sits at 2.7.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Grant Dawson and Nurullo Aliev, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Dawson vs Aliev odds

Live Polymarket odds for Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Dawson vs Aliev

Grant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev is on the UFC 333 card on Oct 24, 2026 at Abu-Dhabi. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Dawson vs Aliev: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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