Analyzing fighters...
AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
This fight is officially dead. Moicano kicked off 2026 by trolling Ortega over some New Year's Eve photos, and these two were supposed to finally settle it at UFC 326. The matchup had been brewing nicely, with Moicano clearly not worried about poking the bear. The Brazilian's been on a weird wave lately. He went the distance with Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title back in January 2025, getting caught in a D'Arce choke in the first round. Then he dropped a decision to Beneil Dariush at UFC 317 in June. But before that title shot? Dude was on fire, beating Benoit Saint Denis with a doctor stoppage in Paris and knocking out Jalin Turner at UFC 300. Ortega's had his own rough stretch.
If Ortega's getting it to the mat, rounds two and three are where he finds the finish, but Moicano's volume could force a stoppage late if he's piecing Ortega up on the feet.
He's dropped three straight, including decisions to Diego Lopes and Aljamain Sterling. But here's the thing, T-City is still dangerous as hell. He submitted Yair Rodriguez in Mexico City back in February 2024, catching him in an arm triangle. That's the Brian Ortega everyone remembers, the guy who can snatch your neck out of nowhere. His switch stance and slick jiu jitsu make him a live dog even when he's struggling. This was shaping up as a classic striker versus grappler battle, except both guys can do everything. Moicano's been landing at crazy rates (80% against Dober, 73% against Saint Denis), but Ortega's submission game is always lurking. One mistake on the ground and it's over. The question was whether Ortega could get this fight where he wanted it, or if Moicano would keep it standing and pile up damage like he's been doing.
Moicano's been making noise about UFC 324 needing Alex Pereira to save it, warning the promotion needs broader appeal beyond hardcore fans. The Brazilian's clearly feeling confident and isn't shy about speaking his mind on the state of UFC cards. With both fighters dealing with losing streaks (Moicano's two straight, Ortega's three), this was a must win situation for both guys. Then everything fell apart. Ortega officially withdrew from UFC 326 on February 14th due to injury, announcing during the UFC 325 broadcast that he needs rest and physical therapy before attempting his lightweight debut. The UFC scrambled to find a replacement, with Esteban Ribovics stepping up to take the fight. But Moicano rejected the matchup, and the UFC 326 main card was revealed without a co main event, leaving the Brazilian's status for March 7th completely up in the air. Ribovics went public with his frustration, calling out Moicano for declining the fight and saying 'I'm not easy money' while suggesting Moicano fears another loss would drop him from the top 15 rankings after back to back defeats. The unranked Ribovics even promised a Fight of the Night caliber performance worth $100,000 if Moicano accepts, but with just over two weeks to fight night, the Brazilian appears unwilling to risk his ranking against an exciting but dangerous replacement opponent.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysisRenato Moicano finish map
Renato Moicano breakdown
Renato Moicano's recent form
This fight is officially dead. Moicano kicked off 2026 by trolling Ortega over some New Year's Eve photos, and these two were supposed to finally settle it at UFC 326. The matchup had been brewing nicely, with Moicano clearly not worried about poking the bear. The Brazilian's been on a weird wave lately. He went the distance with Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title back in January 2025, getting caught in a D'Arce choke in the first round. Then he dropped a decision to Beneil Dariush at UFC 317 in June. But before that title shot? Dude was on fire, beating Benoit Saint Denis with a doctor stoppage in Paris and knocking out Jalin Turner at UFC 300. Ortega's had his own rough stretch.
If Ortega's getting it to the mat, rounds two and three are where he finds the finish, but Moicano's volume could force a stoppage late if he's piecing Ortega up on the feet.
He's dropped three straight, including decisions to Diego Lopes and Aljamain Sterling. But here's the thing, T-City is still dangerous as hell. He submitted Yair Rodriguez in Mexico City back in February 2024, catching him in an arm triangle. That's the Brian Ortega everyone remembers, the guy who can snatch your neck out of nowhere. His switch stance and slick jiu jitsu make him a live dog even when he's struggling. This was shaping up as a classic striker versus grappler battle, except both guys can do everything. Moicano's been landing at crazy rates (80% against Dober, 73% against Saint Denis), but Ortega's submission game is always lurking. One mistake on the ground and it's over. The question was whether Ortega could get this fight where he wanted it, or if Moicano would keep it standing and pile up damage like he's been doing.
Moicano's been making noise about UFC 324 needing Alex Pereira to save it, warning the promotion needs broader appeal beyond hardcore fans. The Brazilian's clearly feeling confident and isn't shy about speaking his mind on the state of UFC cards. With both fighters dealing with losing streaks (Moicano's two straight, Ortega's three), this was a must win situation for both guys. Then everything fell apart. Ortega officially withdrew from UFC 326 on February 14th due to injury, announcing during the UFC 325 broadcast that he needs rest and physical therapy before attempting his lightweight debut. The UFC scrambled to find a replacement, with Esteban Ribovics stepping up to take the fight. But Moicano rejected the matchup, and the UFC 326 main card was revealed without a co main event, leaving the Brazilian's status for March 7th completely up in the air. Ribovics went public with his frustration, calling out Moicano for declining the fight and saying 'I'm not easy money' while suggesting Moicano fears another loss would drop him from the top 15 rankings after back to back defeats. The unranked Ribovics even promised a Fight of the Night caliber performance worth $100,000 if Moicano accepts, but with just over two weeks to fight night, the Brazilian appears unwilling to risk his ranking against an exciting but dangerous replacement opponent.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysisBrian Ortega finish map
Brian Ortega breakdown
Brian Ortega's recent form
Pace delta
+0.3 significant strikes/min
Renato Moicano averages 4.2 significant strikes per minute while Brian Ortega sits at 3.8.
AI confidence
94%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC 327 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
