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UFC Record Breakdown
Thiago Moises is in a tough spot right now. The Brazilian got knocked out by Jared Gordon in the first round back in May, and that's three losses in his last four fights. Before that, he got stopped by Benoit Saint Denis and dropped a decision to Ludovit Klein. The only bright spot was that leg kick finish over Mitch Ramirez and a decision win over Trey Ogden. For a guy training at American Top Team, he needs this one badly. Gauge Young is coming off a split situation himself.
If Moises is going to get a finish, it happens in round two when his leg kicks and grappling start breaking Young down.
He won a decision over Maheshate in China back in August, but before that he lost a decision to Evan Elder in April. So both guys are sitting at that dangerous spot where another loss really hurts. Young's got that Ignite Jiu-Jitsu background, but we haven't seen him really impose his grappling yet in the UFC. Here's the thing about this matchup. Moises has way more experience at this level, but his chin has been tested hard lately. Young's still figuring out the UFC puzzle, throwing a ton of volume but not always landing clean.
When Moises fought Ramirez, he showed he can still finish fights with that nasty leg kick game and solid grappling. The question is whether he can get back to that form or if the damage is adding up. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Moises needs to prove he's still got something left, and Young needs to show he belongs in the deep end of the lightweight pool.
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Gauge Young finish map
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Gauge Young's recent form
Thiago Moises is in a tough spot right now. The Brazilian got knocked out by Jared Gordon in the first round back in May, and that's three losses in his last four fights. Before that, he got stopped by Benoit Saint Denis and dropped a decision to Ludovit Klein. The only bright spot was that leg kick finish over Mitch Ramirez and a decision win over Trey Ogden. For a guy training at American Top Team, he needs this one badly. Gauge Young is coming off a split situation himself.
If Moises is going to get a finish, it happens in round two when his leg kicks and grappling start breaking Young down.
He won a decision over Maheshate in China back in August, but before that he lost a decision to Evan Elder in April. So both guys are sitting at that dangerous spot where another loss really hurts. Young's got that Ignite Jiu-Jitsu background, but we haven't seen him really impose his grappling yet in the UFC. Here's the thing about this matchup. Moises has way more experience at this level, but his chin has been tested hard lately. Young's still figuring out the UFC puzzle, throwing a ton of volume but not always landing clean.
When Moises fought Ramirez, he showed he can still finish fights with that nasty leg kick game and solid grappling. The question is whether he can get back to that form or if the damage is adding up. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Moises needs to prove he's still got something left, and Young needs to show he belongs in the deep end of the lightweight pool.
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Thiago Moises breakdown
Thiago Moises's recent form
Pace delta
+3.2 significant strikes/min
Gauge Young averages 5.7 significant strikes per minute while Thiago Moises sits at 2.5.
AI confidence
80%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Gauge Young vs Thiago Moises odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
