Allan NascimentovsRafael Estevam

From opening bell, Allan Nascimento can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 2.6 significant strikes per minute while Rafael Estevam looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Orthodox stance angles.

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and craftier counter windows and better damage mitigation could flip the entire narrative. Rafael Estevam must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Rafael Estevam owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (35%) but must solve the 30% sprawl from Allan Nascimento.

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.