UFC Takedown Trends: Are Fighters Wrestling Less Now?

Quick answer

Men in the UFC are completing fewer takedowns per minute than earlier generations, according to a new 8,461-bout study. The decline remains clear after removing the sport's early rules era and fights shorter than 90 seconds. The women's sample shows no clear trend, but that doesn't prove fighters are wrestling less. The study counts successful takedowns, not failed shots, defensive work, clinch time, or submission grappling. Better takedown defense and more selective attacks could produce the same pattern.

Data snapshot: 8,461 UFC bouts and 16,922 fighter-bout observations; men from 1997-2025, women from 2013-2025; source records compiled from public UFC Stats data.

What did the UFC takedown study measure?

The study measured takedown density, shortened to TDpM. The formula is simple:

TDpM = successful takedowns ÷ fight time in minutes

One takedown across a 15-minute bout equals 0.067 TDpM; three takedowns in the same time equal 0.200 TDpM. This rate makes short and long fights easier to compare than raw takedown totals.

Kui Ma and colleagues published the analysis in BMC Sports Science, Medicine and Rehabilitation in June 2026. They retained 8,461 UFC bouts, creating 16,922 observations because each fight has two fighters. The final sample included 15,146 men's observations and 1,776 women's observations.

The researchers separated men and women because their UFC timelines differ. The men's analysis runs from 1997 through 2025; the women's window begins in 2013.

TDpM counts completed takedowns only: a fighter can shoot ten times, finish none, and record zero. Another can finish one attempt and log one takedown; the metric sees the result, not the failed work around it.

Are UFC fighters wrestling less over time?

The narrow answer is yes for men's successful takedowns per minute, while the women's data gives no clear answer.

Men's annual mean TDpM fell by 0.00426 takedowns per minute each year from 1997 through 2025. The correlation was −0.753 with p < 0.001, marking a strong downward time trend in this dataset.

Early UFC events create an obvious concern because rules, athlete pools, and fight formats changed. The authors repeated the test from 2002 through 2025, and the decline remained: −0.00202 TDpM per year, r = −0.712, p < 0.001.

They also removed bouts ending inside 90 seconds because those fights can inflate any per-minute rate. The men's direction still held in both time windows.

The women's estimate also points downward, but it is not statistically significant; that sample covers only 13 seasons and far fewer fights. “No clear trend” is the fair reading, while “no change” goes beyond the evidence.

Why completing fewer takedowns doesn't mean less wrestling

The study cannot count what never reached the mat because failed entries, sprawls, fence defense, mat returns, scrambles, and clinch battles sit outside TDpM.

Imagine a modern fighter defends eight shots and concedes one, while an earlier opponent concedes three from the same nine attempts. The newer bout shows fewer successful takedowns, even though both include heavy wrestling.

Several explanations fit the decline:

• Fighters may attempt fewer takedowns.
• Defenders may stop a larger share of attempts.
• Attackers may choose safer entries and accept lower volume.
• More fights may feature styles that keep long phases at distance.
• Rule, judging, and roster changes may shift tactics over time.

The paper does not test which explanation carries the most weight because it lacks takedown type, cage location, round phase, opponent quality, and tactical intent.

This is the central limit: UFC takedown trends describe completed actions, but they do not measure wrestling's total presence or value.

Do UFC winners land more takedowns?

Yes in the raw comparison, but the result is an association because winners posted better medians in all three grappling measures tested.

The median winner completed takedowns at almost exactly one per 15 minutes, while the median loser completed none. Winners who attempted a takedown also finished half their shots, compared with 20% for losers.

The control-time median was higher among winners too, by about 21 seconds per takedown among fighters with at least one completion.

None of this proves that adding a takedown causes victory, since fighters who are already winning may find easier entries. Stronger fighters can lead in striking, wrestling, and control at once; matchmaking and opponent skill also affect every row.

The comparison excludes different cases for different metrics, so keep those filters in mind. Takedown accuracy requires an attempt, while control per takedown requires a completion.

Which UFC divisions complete the most takedowns?

Men's divisions differed, but weight class explained little of the total variation; the full-sample effect size was ε² = 0.00655. After bouts under 90 seconds were removed, it fell to 0.00459.

Heavyweight and light heavyweight generally posted lower TDpM than several lighter and middle divisions, though most neighboring weight-class comparisons were not statistically different. There was no smooth ladder where each lighter division always wrestled more.

The distribution matters more than a simple average because seven of eight men's divisions had a full-sample median of zero. Flyweight was the exception, with a median of 0.067 TDpM.

At the 90th percentile, men's full-sample marks ranged from 0.279 at bantamweight to 0.344 at flyweight. That equals about 4.2 to 5.2 per 15 minutes, but these are historical references, not training or prediction targets.

Women's divisions showed no statistically significant difference, and the effect sizes were near zero. Women's featherweight had only 60 observations, so its upper percentiles carry much more uncertainty.

What does this mean for Makhachev versus Garry?

Population trends do not erase style outliers, and Islam Makhachev enters UFC 330 as the reigning welterweight champion. He defends against Ian Machado Garry on August 15, 2026.

Their current UFC Stats profiles show different grappling metrics, as Makhachev averages 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes with 56% accuracy and 91% defense. Garry averages 0.92, with 31% accuracy and 80% defense.

Recent matchup context makes the numbers more interesting because Garry stopped 15 of 17 combined attempts across two recent bouts. That is a sharp defensive run, but it covers only two fights.

The broad historical decline cannot tell you whether Makhachev will finish his entries against Garry. For that, you need their specific setups, fence positions, size, stance, pace, and reactions after the first shot.

Makhachev also shows why takedown count alone is incomplete, since his 3.10 rate only says how often he completes takedowns. It says nothing about the threat of his back takes, submissions, mat returns, or ground strikes.

Charles Oliveira offers another warning because the UFC Record Book lists him first with 17 submission wins. A fighter can create dangerous grappling from guard or during transitions without building a large takedown total.

How should analysts use UFC takedown stats?

Start with rates, then restore the context that a rate removes.

Use takedowns per 15 minutes for a fighter's familiar UFC profile number, and use TDpM when comparing bouts of different lengths. Both normalize for time, but neither measures failed shots or defensive effort.

Then add the pieces TDpM misses:

• attempts and takedown accuracy;
• opponent takedown defense;
• control time after each completion;
• position gained and submission activity;
• cage versus open-space entries;
• score, round, and remaining time;
• opponent quality and recent form.

Short fights deserve special care because one takedown in a 60-second finish becomes 1.00 TDpM, or 15 takedowns per 15 minutes. That rate describes the bout correctly, yet it is a poor career expectation.

Career averages can hide change when a fighter improves defensive wrestling, moves divisions, or faces a run of grapplers. Split the record by date and opponent style before trusting the headline number.

How solid is this data?

The sample is large and spans 29 men's seasons, while the authors tested the trend without pre-2002 bouts and fights shorter than 90 seconds. Both checks kept the men's result pointed downward.

They also reprocessed a random 5% of retained bouts, or 423 fights, with a second extraction script. No differences appeared in the checked fields, supporting the internal reproducibility of their processing pipeline.

That check does not confirm every UFC stat against fight video because the study used a public CC0 dataset compiled from UFC Stats. The researchers did not independently code the takedowns, attempts, or control time.

The article is an unedited article-in-press version that BMC accepted and published in June 2026, while copy editing was still pending.

The biggest limits are about meaning: TDpM is zero-heavy and right-skewed, and it counts successful takedowns rather than all wrestling. The winner-loser section is observational, while the division effects are statistically detectable for men but small.

For women, 1,776 observations across 2013-2025 provide less time and data, so a non-significant result may reflect a smaller sample, genuine stability, or both.

FAQ

Are UFC fighters wrestling less now?

Men complete fewer takedowns per minute than earlier UFC generations, based on 8,461 bouts through 2025. The data cannot show whether total wrestling activity also fell.

What is TDpM in UFC analysis?

TDpM means successful takedowns per minute: divide a fighter's completed takedowns by elapsed bout minutes to adjust raw totals for fight length.

Do takedowns win UFC fights?

Winners had higher takedown density, accuracy, and control per completion in this study. The comparison is observational, so it does not prove takedowns independently caused those wins.

Which UFC weight class has the most takedowns?

No division leads by a wide, stable margin because men's heavy divisions generally posted lower density, while most neighboring divisions did not differ clearly.

What is a high UFC takedown rate?

In this historical sample, the 90th percentile across men's divisions ranged from 0.279 to 0.344 TDpM. That is about 4.2 to 5.2 takedowns per 15 minutes.