Are UFC Submissions Becoming Less Common? What Data Says

Quick answer

Yes, the UFC submission rate appears to have fallen over the long run. A peer-reviewed study of 3,123 pay-per-view fights found 618 submissions, or 19.8%, and a clear decline from 1993 to 2023. But submissions aren't fading in every sense. Among fights that still finish, a separate era study found submissions taking a larger share. The mix has narrowed too. Rear-naked chokes now carry more of the load, while armbars and triangles appear less often.

Data snapshot: 3,123 UFC PPV fights, 1993-2023; 906 finishes across three two-year windows; 495 UFC fights in 2025.

Is the UFC submission rate actually declining?

The best long-range answer is yes, with an important scope limit.

Mohamad Fares and colleagues reviewed every UFC pay-per-view from UFC 1 through UFC 294. Their sample covered 293 events and 3,123 fights from 1993 through 2023. Of those bouts, 618 ended by submission. That is 19.8%, or about one fight in five.

Their time-trend test found that the submission rate fell across the study period. The result was statistically significant at P<0.001. This doesn't tell us that each new season had fewer submissions than the last. It shows a downward long-run pattern across the pay-per-view sample.

The study also tells us what those finishes looked like. Chokes made up 65.5% of submissions, compared with 34.5% for non-chokes. The rear-naked choke alone accounted for 32.7% of all submission finishes. The head was the target in 74.3% of cases.

Those numbers fit the broad claim. UFC submissions became less common as a share of all sampled fights. Yet that isn't the only valid denominator.

Why does another study show submissions increasing?

A 2026 paper by João Paulo Nogueira da Rocha Santos and colleagues seems to say the opposite. It studied 906 finished bouts across three two-year windows: 2003-2004, 2013-2014 and 2023-2024.

Submissions rose from 37.0% to 52.0% of those finished bouts. That finding also reached P<0.001.

There is no real contradiction. The first study divided submissions by all fights, including decisions. The second divided submissions by finishes only. Both statements can be true if decisions grow while knockouts lose share within the smaller pool of finishes.

This denominator problem matters. Saying “submission rate” without defining the base can turn two correct results into a false argument.

For a simple example, imagine 100 fights with 20 submissions, 30 knockouts and 50 decisions. Submissions are 20% of all fights but 40% of finishes. If the next sample has 18 submissions, 17 knockouts and 65 decisions, the all-fight submission rate falls to 18%. Its share of finishes rises to 51.4%.

The sport can produce fewer submission endings overall while relying more on submissions when somebody does get finished.

Which UFC submissions are becoming more common?

The clearest shift is concentration, not the disappearance of grappling.

In the three-window study, rear-naked chokes rose from 15.8% of submission finishes in 2003-2004 to 46.8% in 2023-2024. Back control was the finishing position in 45.5% of the modern sample. The authors also reported declines in armbars, guillotines and arm-triangle chokes across their selected windows.

A separate medical study supports the armbar side of that picture. Fares and colleagues screened 2,859 UFC pay-per-view fights since 2001. They found 523 submissions, including 97 upper-limb submissions. Armbars supplied 67% of that upper-limb group, but the upper-limb submission rate declined over time at P<0.001.

Another historical study reviewed 904 fight-ending UFC chokes. Rear-naked chokes made up 49.1%, while 19 other choke types shared the rest. Most ended with a voluntary tap. 11% led to loss of consciousness.

Put those studies together and the practical picture is narrow. Modern UFC submission finishes lean heavily toward chokes, especially from the back. Joint locks still work, but they occupy less of the recorded finish mix.

Charles Oliveira shows why an individual can sit far above the trend. His UFC profile lists 22 career submission wins across MMA. That record describes an exceptional finisher, not the average UFC bout. You shouldn't use Oliveira's menu of attacks as proof that armbars or guard submissions remain common across the promotion.

Why have triangle chokes become so rare?

The 2025 season gives the cleanest recent example. MMA Fighting counted 83 submission finishes across 495 UFC fights. Only two were triangles, by Ignacio Bahamondes and Joseph Morales.

Across the UFC, PFL, ONE, RIZIN and KSW, the same audit found 11 triangles among 211 submissions in 1,085 bouts. That is a cross-promotion snapshot, not a controlled study. Still, it shows how uncommon the technique became that year.

The article's coaches and fighters offered a tactical explanation. Most triangles start from bottom guard, where the attacking fighter can absorb strikes or lose control. Modern fighters often use that position to stand instead. Top control, back takes and chokes let them attack while giving up less position.

That explanation is plausible, but it remains expert interpretation. The counts don't prove why fighters changed. Better submission defense, stronger wrestling, judging incentives, matchmaking and training priorities could all contribute.

The Unified Rules add useful context. Judges score effective striking and grappling first. Impactful submission attempts and advantageous positions matter. Passive control does not guarantee a round, and referees can stand fighters when neither advances toward a finish.

That framework doesn't ban guard attacks. It does make failed bottom attacks costly when the opponent lands damage or keeps the better position.

Does a lower submission rate mean UFC grappling is worse?

No. Finish rates and skill levels are different things.

Better defense can reduce finishes even as offensive skill improves. A deeper talent pool can also remove easy mismatches. Fighters now train striking, wrestling and submission defense together, so a specialist faces fewer opponents with a blank area in their game.

The data also shows successful grappling becoming more focused. A rear-naked choke usually comes after a takedown, scramble, pass or back take. The finish is one line in the official result, but the setup may contain several high-skill exchanges.

This is why raw submission totals can mislead a fighter comparison. You should also check takedown success, control position, back-taking ability, opponent quality and recent attempts. A fighter with few submission wins may still create the positions that win rounds. Another may own many regional submissions against much weaker defense.

For prediction models, the target should match the question. Career submission percentage may help estimate finishing style. It is much less useful as a direct forecast without opponent defense, weight class, age, pace and competition level.

What should you track instead of submission wins alone?

Start with opportunities. A submission can't happen without access to the right position.

• Separate chokes from joint locks. Their setups and failure costs differ.
• Track recent attempts, not only completed submissions. Zero finishes can hide repeated threats.
• Weight UFC results more than older regional results. The defensive level changes.
• Check where the fighter attacks. Back control supports different finishes than bottom guard.
• Adjust for opponent quality and sample size. Three fights are not a stable profile.

The official result still matters. It just compresses the sequence. “Submission, rear-naked choke” doesn't tell you whether the finish followed sustained control, a knockdown or one scramble.

AgentMMA's head-to-head tool can organize those fighter-level signals. The historical research supplies a prior, not a verdict. A rear-naked choke specialist facing weak back defense is a matchup claim. “Submissions are up” is not.

How solid is this data?

The 3,123-fight study is peer-reviewed and covers three decades. Its main weakness is selection. It includes pay-per-view events only, so Fight Nights and other cards are absent. It also spans major rule, roster and matchmaking changes. The authors included 272 fights from before the Unified Rules.

The 906-finish study adds technical and positional detail, but it samples only three two-year windows. It excludes decisions by design. Its 37.0% and 52.0% figures cannot be treated as submission rates for every UFC fight in those eras.

The upper-limb study also uses pay-per-view fights. Video analysis covered 80 of 97 upper-limb submissions, not all 97. The 2025 triangle count is broad and recent, but it covers one season. Rare events can swing sharply from year to year.

None of these studies measures every submission attempt. That is the biggest gap. Finish-only data cannot separate fewer attacks from better defense, or failed technique from avoided position.

The safest conclusion is limited. Submissions fell as a share of all fights in a large UFC pay-per-view sample. Among selected modern finishes, submissions took more share and clustered around rear-naked chokes and back control. The cause remains unsettled.

FAQ

What percentage of UFC fights end by submission?

A peer-reviewed study of 3,123 UFC pay-per-view fights from 1993 through 2023 found 618 submissions, an overall rate of 19.8%. That sample excludes Fight Night cards, so it is not a complete all-event UFC rate.

Are UFC submissions becoming less common?

Yes, as a share of all pay-per-view fights in the 1993-2023 study. Yet submissions increased from 37.0% to 52.0% among finished bouts in three selected era windows. The denominator changes the answer.

What is the most common UFC submission?

The rear-naked choke leads the available studies. It supplied 32.7% of all submissions in one UFC 1-294 review. Another study found 49.1% across 904 fight-ending chokes.

Why are triangle chokes rare in modern UFC fights?

Most triangles require bottom position, which exposes the attacker to strikes and positional loss. A 2025 audit found only two triangles among 83 UFC submissions. That count shows rarity, while the tactical cause remains an informed explanation rather than proof.

Do submission attempts score in the UFC?

Yes. The Unified Rules place impactful submission attempts under effective grappling, the first scoring priority alongside effective striking. A low-threat attempt doesn't automatically beat damaging offense or a more effective grappling sequence.