Breakdown: Maddalena vs Prates hinges on who moves backward first

A tactical analysis of the Maddalena versus Prates matchup focuses on the critical question of which fighter will move backward, as both are accustomed to moving forward. Prates has dropped opponents 11 times in the UFC while moving forward and rarely retreats except in his bout with Neil Magny. Maddalena similarly builds his game on forward movement and has never been seen retreating except in brief moments. The analysis suggests that if they clash in the center, Maddalena is at a disadvantage because he absorbed over 50 clean straight punches against Belal Muhammad, while Prates needs only one clean shot to finish fights. Maddalena's advantages lie in his short-range combination boxing and counterstriking ability, which could force Prates backward and keep him on the fence. The piece compares this to Ian Garry's success, noting that Garry's ability to read Prates' left straight on millimeters and his diverse striking arsenal gave him an edge that Maddalena may not possess. The author predicts Maddalena will force Prates backward and win by decision or TKO in rounds 3-4, though acknowledges the bout is a difficult puzzle to solve.