A detailed breakdown of the upcoming welterweight bout between Jack Maddalena and Carlos Prates, with betting odds at 1.9 to 1.8. The analysis suggests Maddalena's pressure-forward style could work against Prates, who struggles when forced backward, similar to how Ian Garry controlled him. However, Maddalena lacks Garry's kicking and footwork skills, forcing him to rely on boxing to control distance, which creates risk against Prates' devastating counter-striking power. Even if Maddalena wins early rounds, Prates remains dangerous until the final seconds, as demonstrated when he nearly knocked out Garry in the fifth round after losing four straight. The only path to victory for Maddalena is maintaining perfect defensive discipline while pressuring for 25 minutes, which the analyst considers unlikely. The prediction favors Prates to win.
A recent analytical breakdown of the upcoming welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates has concluded that the Brazilian holds the edge, largely on the strength of his knockout power and counter-striking ability.
Maddalena, 29, enters the fight ranked fourth in the welterweight division and thirteenth pound-for-pound. The Australian out of Scrappy MMA carries an 18-4 record and brings considerable offensive output, averaging 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy. He is a switch-stance fighter standing 180 cm tall with a 185 cm reach. His grappling contributions are minimal, with just 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, meaning his path through any fight runs almost entirely through boxing.
Prates, nicknamed "The Nightmare," is a 32-year-old Brazilian ranked fifth at welterweight. Fighting out of Vale Top Team, he holds a 24-7 record and stands 185 cm with a notably longer 198 cm reach. He connects at 55 percent striking accuracy and averages 3.77 significant strikes per minute, numbers that reflect a more patient, counter-based approach rather than pure volume.
Why it matters
- Maddalena's pressure-forward boxing game could replicate the control Ian Garry showed, but without Garry's kicking range and footwork he has fewer tools to manage distance safely.
- Prates has shown vulnerability when pushed backward, yet remains capable of ending a fight at any moment, as illustrated when he nearly stopped Garry in the fifth round after dropping four rounds.
- A Prates victory would likely vault him past Maddalena in the divisional standings and position him closer to a title conversation at 170 pounds.
- The analysis frames Maddalena's only realistic route as sustaining perfect defensive discipline for a full 25 minutes, a standard the breakdown considers an unlikely ask.
