An analytical breakdown of the upcoming Jack Maddalena versus Carlos Prates fight suggests Prates has the advantage due to his knockout power. The analysis notes that Maddalena's style works when he's the aggressor, and while Ian Garry successfully pressured Prates using kicks and footwork, Maddalena lacks those tools and will have to rely on boxing to control distance. Every close-range exchange represents a risk of getting countered by Prates. The only path to victory for Maddalena is maintaining perfect pressure and defense for 25 minutes while avoiding Prates' power, which the analyst considers unlikely. Prates has dropped opponents 11 times in the UFC and remains dangerous until the final seconds, similar to how he nearly finished Garry in round five despite losing the first four rounds.
A recent analytical breakdown of the upcoming welterweight clash between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates concludes that the Brazilian holds a meaningful advantage, primarily due to his knockout power and the specific limitations in Maddalena's game.
Maddalena, ranked fourth in the welterweight division and thirteenth pound-for-pound, carries an 18-4 record and has established himself as one of the more dangerous strikers at 170 pounds. The 29-year-old Australian out of Scrappy MMA lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy, operating out of a switch stance. However, the analysis points out that his grappling output is minimal, with just 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, leaving him heavily reliant on boxing to control distance and dictate pace.
Prates, nicknamed "The Nightmare," sits one spot below Maddalena at fifth in the division with a 24-7 record. The 32-year-old Brazilian from Vale Top Team stands six-foot-one with a 78-inch reach, offering a significant frame advantage over Maddalena's 73-inch reach. He lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute at a 55 percent accuracy rate, and the analysis highlights that he has dropped opponents eleven times inside the UFC octagon. The breakdown also references his fight with Ian Garry, noting that Garry kept Prates at bay using kicks and footwork across the first four rounds yet still nearly got finished in round five.
Why it matters
- Maddalena's boxing-first approach removes the distance management tools Garry used effectively against Prates
- Every inside exchange gives Prates, a switch-stance fighter with superior reach, a counter-finishing opportunity
- The analyst views a 25-minute damage-avoidance effort from Maddalena as an unlikely path forward given his aggressive tendencies
- With both men ranked inside the top five at welterweight, the outcome carries direct title contention implications
