The main tactical question for Madalena vs Prates is whether there will be a head-to-head collision in the center, and if not, who will retreat first. Prates has dropped opponents 11 times in the UFC while moving forward and rarely retreats except for brief moments against Neil Magny. Madalena's entire game is also built on forward movement, having never been seen retreating except in small moments. If they clash in the center, Madalena faces danger as he absorbed over 50 clean straight punches against Belal Muhammad, while Prates only needs one clean shot. Madalena's advantage lies in his short combination boxing and counter-striking at close-medium range where Prates struggles. Ian Garry successfully managed Prates by feeling the left straight on millimeters and maintaining distance with kicks and footwork that Madalena lacks. The analysis suggests Madalena needs to pressure Prates for 25 minutes while maintaining perfect defensive discipline, which seems unlikely, making Prates the predicted winner.
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