Analysis: Maddalena vs Prates hinges on who moves backward

An in-depth breakdown of the UFC Perth main event between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates focuses on the central question of who will fight moving backward, as both fighters are aggressive stalkers. Prates has dropped 11 opponents in the UFC moving forward and rarely retreats except briefly against Neil Magny, needing forward movement to land his devastating left straight. Maddalena similarly builds his entire game on forward pressure and has never been seen backing up significantly. The analysis suggests if they clash in the center, Maddalena is at a disadvantage—he absorbed over 50 clean head shots from Belal Muhammad, while Prates needs only one punch to finish fights, as demonstrated against Trevin Giles. Maddalena's best chance lies in his short-range combination boxing and counter-striking to force Prates backward and work close to the cage, though this carries risks of Prates' knees and elbows. The piece notes Ian Garry's success came from exceptional distance management and reading Prates' left hand on millimeters, plus his size, speed, and diverse striking including kicks. Maddalena will likely rely solely on boxing but hits harder than Garry and could damage Prates, potentially forcing him backward. The author predicts Maddalena will succeed in making Prates retreat, overwhelming him with volume striking and winning by decision or TKO in rounds 3-4.