A detailed fight analysis highlights that Carlos Prates poses unique threats to Islam Makhachev, particularly with his devastating low kicks that have damaged the lead legs of southpaws like Leon Edwards and Jack Della Maddalena. Prates can compromise an opponent's movement with 4-5 low kicks and potentially knock them out with 10-15. The analyst notes the danger of closing distance against Prates' devastating knee strikes and accurate straight punches. However, Makhachev is himself a high-level striker who effectively disguises takedowns, and opponents often become compromised after enduring a round of his ground control. The key question is whether Prates can maintain his striking effectiveness after being pressured in half guard for four minutes. The UFC must decide whether to have Prates face Shavkat Rakhmonov first to determine a clear number one contender, or save him for the Makhachev fight.
A recent analytical breakdown has identified Carlos Prates as a genuinely dangerous stylistic threat to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, raising questions about how the UFC should position the Brazilian striker in its welterweight contender picture.
Makhachev, 34, currently holds champion status and sits at the top of the pound-for-pound rankings with a 28-1 record. Fighting out of a southpaw stance, the Russian Eagles MMA product lands 2.63 significant strikes per minute at 58 percent accuracy and is one of the division's most dangerous grapplers, averaging 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. The analysis underscores that his ability to disguise takedown entries behind his striking makes him difficult to game-plan against, and opponents who endure even one round of his half-guard pressure often find their output compromised for the rest of the fight.
The analysis focuses on Prates' low kick arsenal as a potential equalizer. His leg kicks have reportedly damaged the lead limbs of southpaw opponents in the past, including welterweight contender Jack Della Maddalena, who carries an 18-4 record and ranks fourth in the division. According to the breakdown, as few as four or five well-placed low kicks can begin to restrict an opponent's movement, while ten to fifteen could set up a finish. Prates' knee strikes and accurate straight punches in close range are flagged as additional dangers for anyone attempting to close distance on him.
Why it matters
- Makhachev's southpaw stance could amplify the damage from Prates' targeted low kick attack
- The grappling question is central: whether Prates can sustain his striking output after extended ground control remains unresolved
- The UFC faces a strategic decision on whether to first book Prates against third-ranked Shavkat Rakhmonov, the undefeated Kazakh finisher who lands at 60 percent striking accuracy and averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes, to clarify the number-one contender picture before any title conversation
