A theory from analyst Vlad Matveev suggests Hamzat Chimaev was preparing for a light heavyweight debut at 93kg, but plans changed at the last moment. This theory attempts to explain Chimaev's surprisingly poor cardio that lasted only one round at UFC 328, which seems inconsistent with his training under top sports science professionals. The analysis notes that Chimaev's compromised conditioning contradicts expectations given his elite preparation team. The post also covers other UFC 328 observations: comparing Erceg vs Taira to Moreno vs Figueiredo for younger fans, predicting they will fight for the title with Taira eventually returning, and suggesting Alexander Volkov continues to benefit from questionable judging after his controversial Gane decision, with another close fight scored in his favor.
Unverified analyst commentary published shortly after UFC 328 suggests Hamzat Chimaev may have arrived at the event having prepared for a light heavyweight appearance, only for those plans to shift at the eleventh hour — a theory put forward by analyst Vlad Matveev to explain what many observers described as a surprising collapse in Chimaev's conditioning after just one round.
The report, which has not been officially confirmed, frames Chimaev's cardio issues as inconsistent with the standards expected from an athlete working alongside elite sports science professionals. The suggestion is that a late weight-class switch away from 205 pounds could account for the disconnect between his reputation for rigorous preparation and his performance on the night.
Matveev's post-event analysis also touched on several other UFC 328 talking points. The Erceg versus Taira flyweight contest drew comparisons to the early Moreno-Figueiredo rivalry, with the analyst predicting a future title fight between the two and eventual gold for Tatsuro Taira. The Japanese fighter, ranked fifth at flyweight at 26 years old, carries an 18-2 record and has built his reputation on a strong ground game, averaging 3.12 takedowns and 1.60 submission attempts per 15 minutes alongside a 60 percent striking accuracy.
Alexander Volkov's performance also drew scrutiny. The analysis suggested the Russian heavyweight, ranked first in the division at 37 with a 40-11 record, continues to benefit from favorable scorecards in close bouts. Matveev referenced Volkov's earlier disputed decision over Ciryl Gane — the French heavyweight ranked second at 36 with a 14-2 record — and argued that another narrow fight at UFC 328 was again scored in Volkov's favor in questionable fashion.
Why it matters
- If the weight-class theory holds, it would raise broader questions about late logistical changes and their effect on fighter conditioning
- Volkov's back-to-back controversial decisions carry direct implications for the top of the heavyweight rankings
- A Taira title run would mark a significant moment for Japanese flyweight competition at the elite level
Saturday, May 9, 2026
