UFC 328 witnessed a rare double occurrence where fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in a title fight ended up losing. Historically, fighters who secure five or more takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81% of the time, and those with seven or more win 83% of the time. However, Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira both defied these odds, landing nine and eight takedowns respectively yet still losing their fights. Taira in particular controlled for nearly 11 minutes with solid takedowns but was still finished. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling remains powerful, total mixed martial arts versatility is ultimately superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on weight cuts, health, and circumstances.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly on Saturday night when both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira lost title fights despite each landing a historically dominant number of takedowns — nine and eight respectively — defying trends that have held firm across years of championship bouts.
Chimaev, the 32-year-old middleweight contender representing the United Arab Emirates, entered the fight ranked first in the division and tenth pound-for-pound. Known as "Borz," he carries a 15-1 record and brings some of the most relentless pressure in the sport, averaging 5.29 takedowns and 4.04 significant strikes per 15 minutes at 60 percent striking accuracy. Despite piling up nine takedowns in a middleweight title contest, it was not enough to secure the championship.
Flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira suffered a similarly cruel outcome. The 26-year-old from Japan holds an 18-2 record and is ranked fifth in his division. He averaged 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes heading into the fight and controls opponents at range with a 70-inch reach and 60 percent striking accuracy. At UFC 328, he managed eight takedowns and held control for nearly 11 minutes, yet was still finished before the final bell.
Why it matters
- Fighters landing five or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81 percent of the time, and those landing seven or more win 83 percent — making two losses with eight-plus takedowns on the same card extraordinarily rare.
- Both outcomes suggest that sustained grappling volume alone cannot guarantee a championship result when an opponent possesses elite finishing ability or recovers effectively off their back.
- Wrestling is an energy-intensive tool heavily influenced by factors like weight cuts and conditioning, meaning a dominant takedown count does not always translate to damage or control that judges or referees weigh decisively.
- The results reinforce that total mixed martial arts versatility continues to outpace specialists at the highest level of the sport.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
