At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed eight or more takedowns in title fights both lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in championship fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with seven or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Kai Asakura landed eight, yet both were defeated. Asakura's takedowns were particularly effective with full positional control lasting nearly 11 minutes, but he was still finished. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling maintains roughly 80% win probability, total well-roundedness is superior because wrestling is energy-intensive and vulnerable to health issues, weight cut problems, travel, and other variables. The post argues that Chimaev showed cardio for striking and potential as a more rounded fighter, suggesting he should develop more striking skills with proper coaching.
Two title fights at UFC 328 on May 9 produced a statistical rarity that almost never happens in championship MMA: both wrestlers who dominated on the mat lost their belts or fell short despite extraordinary takedown numbers.
Khamzat Chimaev, the number-one ranked middleweight contender, completed nine takedowns in his title challenge yet was defeated. The 30-year-old UAE-based Swede enters the record books with a 15-1-0 career mark after the loss. Known as "Borz," Chimaev averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career — among the highest rates in the division — and lands significant strikes at 60 percent accuracy. Despite those elite grappling credentials, the title did not change hands in his favor. Sean Strickland, the reigning middleweight champion fighting out of Xtreme Couture, retained the belt. The 35-year-old American carries a 31-7-0 record and throws volume striking at 6.04 significant strikes per minute, presenting a fundamentally different problem than a wrestler expects to solve.
In the flyweight division, Kai Asakura landed eight takedowns and held positional control for nearly 11 minutes of the bout but was still finished, leaving the title with Joshua Van. The 24-year-old champion from Myanmar, fighting out of 4oz. Fight Club, carries a 17-2-0 record and lands significant strikes at a remarkable 56 percent accuracy rate — the highest of any fighter on the card — at 8.84 per minute.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who complete five or more takedowns in title fights win roughly 81 percent of the time, making two losses in one night a pronounced statistical outlier.
- Both finishes suggest that elite grappling volume alone does not guarantee championship success when the opponent possesses exceptional finishing ability or striking efficiency.
- The results raise questions about whether Chimaev, who showed striking cardio alongside his wrestling, could benefit from a more rounded offensive approach going forward.
- Van's title defense cements his status as one of the most accurate strikers in the flyweight division despite facing an opponent with dominant mat control.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
