A highly unusual occurrence happened at UFC 328, where two fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns in title fights both ended up losing their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in championship fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7 or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Kai Kara-France (Taiira) executed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but still lost their title matches. Kara-France achieved strong takedowns with complete ground control lasting nearly 11 minutes, yet was still finished. The post analyzes how even elite-level wrestlers maintain roughly 80% win probability, but factors like weight cutting issues, minor injuries, travel, or facing well-rounded strikers can drastically shift those odds. The commentary suggests that while Chimaev showed strong wrestling, developing more comprehensive striking skills and strategic setups could make him even more dangerous as a complete mixed martial artist.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
