At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice: fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in a title fight ended up losing. Historically, fighters who land five or more takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81.08% of the time, and those with seven or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, yet both lost their championship fights. Taira had quality takedowns with full grounding and nearly 11 minutes of control time but was still finished. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling remains highly effective, complete universalism in skillsets may be even more crucial, especially when factors like weight cuts, injuries, or travel can diminish a wrestler's performance.
UFC 328 produced a statistical rarity on Saturday night — and then produced it again. Two fighters each landed eight or more takedowns in their respective championship bouts and still walked away without a title, a combination that defies the historical norms of UFC title-fight wrestling.
Khamzat Chimaev, the No. 1-ranked middleweight and No. 10 pound-for-pound fighter, entered his title fight as one of the most dominant grapplers in the sport. The 32-year-old from the United Arab Emirates carries a 15-1 record and averages a staggering 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career, with 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute rounding out a well-developed offensive game. He put nine takedowns on the board and still came up short.
Tatsuro Taira's result was perhaps even more striking. The 26-year-old Japanese flyweight, ranked fifth in his division with an 18-2 record, posted eight takedowns with full grounding and logged nearly 11 minutes of control time — and was finished anyway. Taira averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and connects on 60 percent of his significant strikes, the same accuracy figure Chimaev also carries.
Both losses in the same night represent a genuine anomaly. Historically, fighters who land five or more takedowns in UFC title bouts win more than 81 percent of the time. That figure climbs to 83 percent when the threshold rises to seven or more.
Why it matters
- The double outcome challenges the assumption that elite wrestling alone is sufficient at championship level
- Chimaev's loss lands at a delicate moment for the middleweight division, with the No. 1 contender now sitting at 15-1
- Taira's defeat despite dominant control time raises questions about finishing ability and the limits of top-position grappling at flyweight
- Both results support the case that complete, well-rounded skill sets — not wrestling volume alone — may be the decisive factor in modern title fights, particularly when physical variables like weight cuts and travel enter the equation
Saturday, May 9, 2026
