UFC 328 featured an unusual occurrence that happened twice on the same card: fighters who executed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters landing 5+ takedowns in championship fights have won 81% of the time, and those with 7+ have an 83% success rate. Both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira recorded 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but were defeated. Taira's takedowns were particularly effective, with full ground control lasting nearly 11 minutes. The analysis suggests that while elite-level wrestlers maintain strong win probabilities, total versatility in striking and grappling is increasingly important, as wrestling is highly energy-intensive and can be compromised by weight cuts, injuries, or other factors.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly on Saturday night — not once but twice on the same card, a fighter landed eight or more takedowns in a title bout and still walked away with a loss.
Khamzat Chimaev, known as Borz, entered his middleweight title fight as the division's top-ranked contender and the tenth-ranked fighter pound for pound. The 32-year-old representing the United Arab Emirates carries a 15-1-0 record and trains out of Allstars Training Center. At six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach, Chimaev is a physically imposing presence, and his numbers reflect a relentless offensive style — 4.04 significant strikes landed per minute at 60 percent accuracy, paired with 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Despite recording nine takedowns in his championship bout, he could not secure the victory.
Tatsuro Taira's performance told a similarly striking story in the flyweight title fight. The 26-year-old Japanese fighter, ranked fifth in the division, holds an 18-2-0 record and competes out of The Blackbelt Japan. Standing five-foot-seven with a 70-inch reach, Taira averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts in the same span. He managed eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of ground control across the fight — and still came up short.
Why it matters
- UFC fighters landing seven or more takedowns in title bouts have historically won at an 83 percent rate, making both outcomes statistical outliers on the same night
- Taira's near-11 minutes of ground control underlines that volume and control time alone did not translate to a finish or a judges' decision in his favor
- The results raise questions about wrestling's diminishing returns at championship level, where striking versatility and cardio management — factors affected by weight cuts and fight-week variables — appear to carry increasing weight
Saturday, May 9, 2026
