UFC 328 sees rare double occurrence of fighters losing despite 8+ takedowns

At UFC 328, a rare event occurred twice: fighters who executed eight or more takedowns in a title fight lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with seven or more takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, both with significant control time, yet both lost. The analysis emphasizes that elite wrestling still provides an 80% win probability, but total well-roundedness remains superior. The post discusses how weight cutting, injuries, and other circumstances can dramatically shift odds against even top-level wrestlers, and suggests Chimaev should develop his striking game more comprehensively given his physical tools and power.